FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 7/22/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|West Ham at Manchester United||Man United (-450)||-220||Martial/Rashford (-160)|
|Chelsea at Liverpool||Liverpool (-105)||-162||Salah (+100)|
This is a really fun two-match slate. Late in the year, we need to factor in what each team has left to play for. These two matches are crucial for Manchester United and Chelsea -- not so much for Liverpool and West Ham.
Just about everyone is going to stack the Red Devils, who are at home versus the Hammers. Manchester United have it all to play for as they are fighting to make the top four while West Ham are playing out the string. United should roll, and the two most likely scorelines are 2-0 (+650) and 3-0 (+750) in favor of the Red Devils.
Bruno Fernandes ($20; +100 to score anytime), Anthony Martial ($19; -160), Marcus Rashford ($21; -160) and Mason Greenwood ($16; +100) have been the stars for United since the restart. Martial and Rashford share the top anytime goal odds in this one. All four of these guys should be popular, especially Bruno and Greenwood, the latter of whom offers sweet goal odds at a modest price. I'd expect Fernandes' ownership to be up around 60%. It's tempting to fade anyone who will be that popular, but with Fernandes' set-piece work -- including penalties -- and how much time he'll likely spend on the ball, he's got the best floor on this slate as well as through-the-roof upside.
Paul Pogba ($14; +210) is a cheaper way to get exposure to United, and he probably won't be as chalky as the four aforementioned players. Pogba hasn't gotten forward quite as much with Fernandes in the team, but the Frenchman has created at least two chances in four of the past six. Pogba's salary makes it easier to stack United while also paying up for a stud or two in the other game.
Speaking of that other match, Liverpool are +100 to win at home against the Blues, and while every metric in the world would tell you Liverpool should be a bigger favorite than that, the line being what it is tells you how meh the Reds have been since the restart along with how much oddsmakers are factoring in motivation. This is a huge match for Chelsea in their battle for a UCL spot. On the flip side, this clash means very little for Liverpool.
Still, I will have more Liverpool than Chelsea, and in a lot of my lineups, I'll get all four forwards/midfielders from Liverpool and Man United.
Mohamed Salah ($19; +100) and Sadio Mané ($18; +120) are a little cheaper than usual, though their goal odds are also a little worse than usual. But they're facing a Chelsea defense that has been leaky at times -- including giving up three goals to West Ham, three to Sheffield United and two to Crystal Palace since the restart. Liverpool could put two or three on the board if they flip the switch, but that's a big if.
I keep plugging Roberto Firmino ($15; +200) to no avail, but his salary is handy if you're paying up for three United attackers and Firmino created six chances just two games ago. Naby Keita ($10; +500), Curtis Jones ($6; +250) and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($13; +360) could be starters in an attacking midfield role with Jordan Henderson sidelined. Their goal odds aren't bad for the price.
Added time -- If you want to use a Chelsea attacker, I'd look to Christian Pulisic ($16; +290) and Olivier Giroud ($15; +175). I don't like Willian ($18; +310) as much, but he may be on pens. Pulisic and Giroud have better goal odds than Willian at a cheaper salary, and Pulisic's pace should factor prominently in a match in which Liverpool will likely see more of the ball. ... I can't envision many people paying up for West Ham's Michail Antonio ($17; +340). While his floor is low in a difficult matchup, Antonio has been in sparkling form and could be a GPP swing play if he scores.
The masses may find it hard to afford Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) if the common lineup is to stack United and get one of Salah or Mané. TAA had a very TAA game last time out, scoring 16.3 FanDuel points thanks to three chances created and a shot on goal. It snapped a little cold spell for him in DFS, and like always, his set-piece duties make him a unicorn among defenders.
If I can't jam in Trent, I'll be looking to West Ham's back line. Issa Diop ($12) and Angelo Ogbonna ($9) are the projected starting center-backs, and both should be busy at Old Trafford.
Antonio Rüdiger ($9) and Kurt Zouma ($10) are probable starters for Chelsea. The Blues probably won't be as under siege as West Ham will be, but Rüdiger and Zouma offer respectable floors at a fine salary.
Added time -- Andrew Robertson ($14) could be a sneaky-good GPP play. Priced just a buck cheaper than Alexander-Arnold, Robertson may slip through the cracks. He should have to tend to his defensive duties versus Chelsea, and he'll get forward like usual. ... César Azpilicueta ($14) and Marcos Alonso ($13) are decent stacking partners for a Chelsea attacker if you're into the Blues on this slate. Alonso's +600 anytime goal odds are excellent for a defender, and there may be space for him to run into when Alexander-Arnold bombs forward.
David de Gea ($13) has the best win odds on the slate by a massive margin, and he's priced as such -- $2 more expensive any other keeper. A clean-sheet win is firmly in play for DDG. While he turned in a stinker last weekend in the FA Cup, he's playing behind a United defense that has allowed the third-fewest expected goals this campaign, per FBRef. The Red Devils are a slate-best -102 to keep a clean sheet. Using de Gea will be a priority for me.
Alisson ($11) is as cheap as we've seen him this season. Rostering the Brazilian is a bet on talent -- both his and Liverpool's. The Reds have allowed just 29 goals in 36 league games, including 13 goals in 18 Anfield matches. Liverpool are only +220 to keep a clean sheet, however, so Alisson is a volatile play, but every goalie outside of de Gea is super risky on this slate.
Added time -- The slate's other two goalies, Kepa Arrizabalaga ($9) and Lukasz Fabianski ($7), are scary plays. Of the two, Arrizabalaga is the better choice unless you're fading -- or going light on -- Manchester United and want to use Fabianski as a correlation play. While Kepa has had his woes this season, he should see save volume, and Chelsea are +250 to win. But I'd much rather roster DDG or Alisson than touch either of these two.