Premier League Betting Guide for Wednesday 7/15/20
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Newcastle vs. Tottenham
Newcastle +1 (no push) +105
Tottenham are having a disappointing season, as they sit in 8th place with a 14W-10D-11L record. Their win rate is only 40% for the season, and they already lost at home to Newcastle earlier in the year. If we go by expected goal difference, Tottenham are 19.5 goals better than Newcastle, which is only good for a slightly higher than 0.5 goals per game.
On the other side, Newcastle are 11-10-14 good for a 60% win/draw rate. So, while the implied betting odds are about 50% for Newcastle to win/draw, they have greatly outperformed that rate this season.
Since the restart, Spurs have won 50% of their matches (3 out of 6), while Newcastle have won/drawn 66.7% (4 out of 6). The trends both long and short term point towards Newcastle having better than a 50% chance to win/draw, which is higher than the implied betting odds.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool
Liverpool to win -115
Liverpool have been miles better than Arsenal for this entire season, and they are still chasing a historic 100-point season. Liverpool are 30-3-2 on the year with a +49, good enough to have already clinched the league title.
The Gunners are struggling, sitting in 9th place and a whopping 43 points behind Liverpool. The Gunners are also 9 spots behind in WhoScored.com’s team ranking and are 32.7 goals behind Liverpool in expected goal difference.
Every metric largely favors Liverpool in this game. Perhaps the oddsmakers believe Liverpool will lose some of their edge having already clinched the title, but the chase for 100 points is still potentially motivating. As long as Liverpool puts out a lineup that's close to full strength, they would be a strong betting option for Wednesday.