FanDuel Soccer: EPL Under-the-Radar Plays for 7/15/20
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Wednesday slate, which starts at 1:00 p.m. EST and features four matches.
|Wednesday, July 15th|
|Bournemouth at Manchester City|
|Tottenham at Newcastle|
|Wolves at Burnley|
|Liverpool at Arsenal|
Matchweek 36 is highlighted by an afternoon clash between Arsenal and Liverpool. Manchester City is the largest favorite on the slate, with an implied win probability of 87.5%. Tottenham is the next largest favorite, with an implied win probability of 57.5% on the road against Newcastle. Right behind Spurs is Wolves and Liverpool, who both have an implied win total of 53.5% on the road against Burnley and Arsenal, respectively.
Manchester City is the only side on the slate that has inspired much confidence with their recent play. Liverpool produced an uninspired draw against Burnley last time out, while Arsenal lost to Spurs. Despite their derby win, Tottenham has been a side lacking confidence since the restart, and have the results to show for it, while Wolves have lost two of their last three. Meanwhile, Manchester City has scored a combined 10 goals in their last two games, with back-to-back 5-goal victories.
The form of the sides involved in this slate should lead to Manchester City being heavily owned. On current form, fading them is risky, but a meeting against a Bournemouth side that is fighting for their Premier League lives, and just beat Leicester City by 3 goals, leaves the door open to consider it.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Raul Jimenez, FWD/MID, Wolves
FanDuel Salary: $19
With Manchester City set up for success, Tottenham in a decent spot, and with Liverpool's stars slightly discounted coming off a loss, Jimenez could slip under-the-radar relative to his outlook this weekend. As is the case with all of the strikers at the high end of the salary range, Jimenez won't carry extremely low ownership, but he should see a large enough dip to make him a contrarian option at the top of the FWD/MID player pool.
Burnley is coming off an excellent performance against Liverpool in which they held the league champions to a draw. Now, on just four days rest, they have to turn around and face a motivated Wolves side that is still fighting for a chance at European soccer next season. Even at home, it's a difficult task, and the public may overlook Wolves' outlook after Burnley thwarted Liverpool their last time out.
Jimenez began the restart with a bang, scoring in back-to-back matches -- resulting in FanDuel point performances of 32.3 and 23.9. He then endured a three-game goal-scoring drought before getting back on the scoresheet last Sunday against Everton. He has demonstrated his ceiling countless times this season, with four games of 40-plus FanDuel points, four more with 30-plus FanDuel points, and 11 with 20-plus FanDuel points. His combination of consistency and upside always deserves consideration, and that is especially the case when the slate sets up for him to be overlooked.
Lucas Moura, FWD/MID, Tottenham
FanDuel Salary: $13
The bad news for Tottenham is their season is essentially over, and they have nothing to show for it. The good news for Tottenham is they just won the North London Derby, ensuring that Arsenal remains below them in the table, for now. Coming off an emotional victory, there is the potential for a trap game on the road against Newcastle, but the Toons' season is also all but over, and they have conceded nine goals over their last three matches combined (five to Manchester City).
Harry Kane ($20) will likely generate his usual ownership after a bounce-back, 37.2-FanDuel-point performance against Arsenal, but that confidence is unlikely to extend to Spurs other attackers despite the good matchup. Enter Lucas Moura, who is coming off a 25.3-FanDuel-point performance of his own against Arsenal and has started and played at least 72 minutes in four of five games since the restart. After coming on as a sub against Bournemouth on July 9th, Moura has been a catalyst for Spurs attack, and that should continue this weekend.
Moura's season is full of dismal fantasy performances with numerous single-digit games. However, he has shown the ability to produce ceiling games when in form as shown by his FanDuel totals of 39.8, 29.5, and 26.9 back in late November/December. Moura has started to look the part again recently and could produce as an under-the-radar option against Newcastle on Saturday.