Premier League Betting Guide for 7/9/20
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Everton vs. Southampton
Southampton to win +250
Southampton and Everton should be an evenly matched game as Everton is currently only one point ahead of the Saints in the league table. Southampton trail Everton by five goals on goal difference and by 8.4 goals in FBref’s expected goal difference, but this is still a modest gap over the first 33 games of the season.
Southampton are 13W-4D-16L this year, giving them a 39.4% win rate for the season. This is a much better win rate than their 28.57% implied win odds in this match would suggest. Everton are 11th in the league table, so there really shouldn’t be this large of a gap between Southampton’s season win rate compared to their implied odds at +250.
This is an evenly matched game, and Southampton are too big of an underdog. The Saints at +250 is a wise bet.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Manchester United +2 (no push) +250
Manchester United have been dominant since the restart. The Red Devils have gone 3-1-0 with all their wins coming by three goals or more -- including wins over Sheffield United and Brighton, both of whom are above Aston Villa in the table.
Aston Villa have been horrendous this season. They are in 18th place with only 27 points from 33 games and are in the thick of a relegation battle. Not only that, but they have allowed the second-most goals in the league at 62, only one fewer than Norwich. Villa are last in the league in expected goals against, so there is little doubt as to how putrid their defense is.
Manchester United are rolling, and they should thrash Villa's porous defense. This game could be a disaster for Villa, and United should end up winning in a blowout.