FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 7/11/20
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST. The three matches on this slate all start at different times. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Burnley at Liverpool||Liverpool (-410)||-205||Salah (-170)|
|Chelsea at Sheffield United||Chelsea (-170)||-104||Abraham (-105)|
|Man City at Brighton||Man City (-360)||-188||Jesus (-150)|
The top three teams in the table are on this three-match slate, and each is a big favorite. I expect most lineups to pull all their attackers from Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City. Of that group, I think Liverpool will be the most popular. Not only are the Reds the slate's biggest favorite, but they're in the first match and will be the only lineup of the favorites that we know for sure at first lock -- as the three matches have staggered start times. My thinking is most people will find it easier to plug in the Liverpool stacks they want instead of going lighter on the Reds and trying to guess who Chelsea and Man City will start.
With that said, I'll be stacking the Reds, as well, but I'll probably keep any Liverpool attacking stacks to just two players. Mohamed Salah ($22; -170 to score) has the slate's best anytime goal odds and Sadio Mané ($20; -145) also has great goal odds. Stacking both of them hurts your wallet but also gives you massive upside. I expect Burnley to park the bus, so Liverpool may need to lean on the playmaking of Roberto Firmino ($15; +125), who gives us nice goal odds at a much friendlier price. With Jordan Henderson ($14; +500) looking iffy to play, some value could open up in the form of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($11; +260) and Naby Keita ($10; +360), two guys who will be awfully useful if you're trying to stack Liverpool and City.
Man City is the other team I'll be making sure I stack as I think they're in a much friendlier spot than Chelsea are. City are City, and they can score four or five in any EPL matchup. Since the restart, Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +180) has produced these FanDuel point totals over his four starts: 29.3, 44.6, 29.9 and 39.9. He might be the slate's highest-owned player, but fading KDB is terrifying.
Gabriel Jesus ($18; -150), Raheem Sterling ($19; -110), Riyad Mahrez ($20; +155), David Silva ($16; +340), Bernardo Silva ($14; +180) and Phil Foden ($15; +175) are all enticing, too. Mahrez may slip through the cracks at his salary, assuming the masses pay up for KDB and one of Salah or Mané. Foden had just 4.3 FanDuel points last time out, but he could've easily netted at least two goals -- finished with a team-best 0.7 expected goals, per FBRef -- and continues to spend a lot of time operating in dangerous areas. If Bernardo starts, he has nice anytime goal odds at a cheap price.
If I use any Chelsea attackers, it'll be just one, but I may fade them altogether. Playing at Sheffield United is a tough matchup. The Blades have given up the seventh-fewest expected goals in the league, and they've shipped just 14 goals in 17 home EPL matches. This match is only -104 to go over 2.5 goals. On paper, the Blues don't offer the same upside as City or Liverpool.
However, Christian Pulisic ($17; +200) and Willian ($21; +220) deserve a shout as both have been in dazzling form post-break. Willian has ridden his newfound penalty duties to four goals across his last five matches, and he's also taking corners and free kicks. In total, he's been credited with 16 chances created over the last five, though his anytime goal odds are lacking for a player priced in the elite tier. Pulisic has three goals since the restart and has created seven total chances. He's scored at least 25.6 FanDuel points in four of the five games.
Added time -- I don't think any attackers from the three underdogs will garner much ownership, so hitting on one could be a huge difference-maker in GPPs. Admittedly, I really have to do some work to talk myself into one of them. Burnley's Chris Wood ($11; +230) is super cheap and has the best anytime goal odds of anyone on one of the 'dogs. Billy Sharp ($12; +270) and Oliver McBurnie ($16; +280) are worth a look from Sheffield United. I can't imagine many people wanting to fork over $16 for McBurnie on a slate with this many top-notch attacking options, and the Blues haven't been very good defensively of late (three goals to West Ham and two to Crystal Palace).
The way I see it, there are two routes to take at defender on this slate -- pay up for Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) or go with a low-cost floor play from one of the underdogs.
I'll be looking for bargain-bin center-backs from Burnley, Sheffield United and Brighton. All three teams should spend a lot of time without the ball and will have chances to rack up defensive action points. We saw this exact scenario play out for Brighton midweek as they hosted Liverpool, and all four of their starting defenders hit at least 10 FanDuel points. Adam Webster ($12) scored 22.1 on all defensive points.
As for Alexander-Arnold, this looks like a smash spot for him. When facing a packed-in defense, Liverpool often end up relying on their star right-back to launch in crosses to generate chances. That's how a lot of teams try to break down the Clarets, as Burnley have surrendered the sixth-most crosses per game. TAA has fired off 360 crosses this season, nearly 100 more than anyone else. By his standards, Alexander-Arnold has been a little meh lately in DFS -- 11.2, 6.3 and 13.4 FanDuel points over his past three -- but he could blow up here and still handles a fair share of set-piece work for the Reds.
Andrew Robertson ($12) and João Cancelo ($12) can be economical stacking partners for Liverpool and Man City, respectively. Both should get forward plenty and may go under-owned with the masses likely to load up on the high-priced studs from their teams.
Added time -- Marcos Alonso ($13; +490) has really nice goal odds for a defender, but he has been left on the bench in each of Chelsea's last two games. If he finds his way in the lineup, he would be a nice option. ... Sheffield United's Enda Stevens ($11) and George Baldock ($10) check a lot of boxes. The Blades' stacking full-backs in their three-at-the-back system, these two should have a decent floor thanks to their defensive duties, and they also have a chance to do some damage in attack.
Alisson ($14) and Ederson ($13) are the cream of the crop at keeper if you can find the cash for one of them. I'll be making it a priority to do so. Alisson has the best win odds on the slate, and the Reds are -104 to keep a clean sheet. Ederson also has really good win odds, and City are -102 to keep a clean sheet. The only negatives here are a likely lack of save volume and the expensive salaries. Of the two, I lean Alisson as I think the Reds will get a clean-sheet win over Burnley.
Of the underdog keepers, Dean Henderson looks like the best option to me. He's only +500 to win, but that's by far the best win odds of any of the underdogs. Henderson has been great this year for Sheffield United, a side that's conceded only 33 goals in 34 EPL matches. As I said above, I may fade Chelsea's attackers on this slate, and if I do, Henderson makes sense as a correlation play.
Added time -- In small-field contests, I'm not touching Kepa Arrizabalaga ($12), but his likely low ownership makes him interesting in GPPs. Kepa, of course, is in the midst of a pretty rough season, and he's given up a total of seven goals in five matches since the restart, keeping one clean sheet in that time. But the Blades have just the 15th-most goals in the league this season, so the matchup is there for Kepa to post a solid day.