DraftKings Daily Fantasy Soccer Helper for 7/8/20
Wednesday seems to be the day for the biggest slates in the Premier League during "Project Restart," and even then we are only getting a three-game slate. Let's look at the matches and betting odds for those three games, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
|Man City -950||+950||Newcastle +2400|
|Sheff Utd +300||+195||Wolves +115|
|West Ham -115||+250||Burnley +310|
Forwards to Target
Jarrod Bowen ($9,500): Bowen has been somewhat of a revelation for West Ham since the restart. He had only made four appearances before the league was paused and now has made four since it has resumed, all starts. Bowen has racked up double-digit DraftKings points in all six of his league starts. He has mainly done this through his creativity, with three assists in his past two games. He also has been given corner kick duties, taking three of West Ham's four in their last match against Newcastle, according to WhoScored.com. His opportunities to cross should present themselves against an opponent like Burnley, who are the second-worst possession team in the Premier League. His high floor and playing for a favored team makes him a good play in cash games.
Raheem Sterling ($8,900): Despite Manchester City being overwhelming favorites and Sterling being their leading scorer of players who are not injured, his price is only $8,900. The matchup doesn't get much better than facing Newcastle United, who allow the most shots and the most crosses per game. This is also a huge mismatch in terms of possession, as Man City have held the ball a league best 61.7% of the time this season, while Newcastle are the worst with just 41.9%. This should give Sterling a good chance to get shots and crosses, to go with his solid -155 anytime goal scoring odds. Sterling is also due for positive regression in the assist column, with just one in 28 league games this season after having over 10 in the two seasons prior. He is playable in any format.
Johann Berg Gudmundsson ($5,200): If he's in the lineup, Gudmundsson is about the cheapest forward who has a reliable floor. He averaged over six crosses per 90 minutes in the past three Premier League seasons for Burnley, according to Rotowire. That could be useful against a West Ham team that allow the sixth-most crosses per game. Gudmundsson would be a welcome salary relief play at a top heavy forward position.
Midfielders to Target
Kevin De Bruyne ($11,700): De Bruyne is one of the easiest plays on the slate. He is the only player in the league with double-digit goals and assists. When you add in that he is second in the league in crosses, you get one of the highest floor/ceiling combo players in England. He gets a near monopoly of set pieces when he's on the pitch, including being a threat from direct free kicks. He also seems to have taken over the penalty duties for City, scoring two since the league restarted. KDB checks nearly every box and is close to a must play. There are certain situations where fading the player who will be the most owned makes sense, but on this small three-game slate, it's tough to make a case to do so.
João Moutinho ($6,900): Moutinho's price has come down considerably since we last saw him on a main slate. Three games ago, he was $8,300 and before that he was $9,000. Now at $6,900 on a smaller slate, he becomes a very good option at midfield. Moutinho has tied for the second-most corner kicks in the league, which has lead to him having the seventh-most crosses. Wolves are favored in this game against Sheffield United, who have won just one out of five after the break. Moutinho also averages over two chances created per 90 minutes and 1.5 tackles won per 90 minutes, giving him a good floor. Moutinho isn't the flashiest play, but he consistently will get around nine points, and that floor could be worth paying $6,900 in some lineup builds.
Ben Osborn ($3,100): Osborn is close to the minimum price but is a pretty strong play if he gets another start. Osborn took over John Fleck's role in the midfield and his role on corner kicks as well. All in all, he had four crosses in his last game, and that was after a 7.6-point performance against Tottenham in the previous match. If he can do anything like that, he is definitely worth the just $3,100 salary. If you're trying to fit in multiple pieces from Manchester City, Osborn is a key that can unlock that lineup construction.
Defenders to Target
Benjamin Mendy ($5,200): With not a large selection of high-end defenders on this slate, Benjamin Mendy is one of the better attacking options. He averages 5.38 crosses per 90 minutes. He should be able to easily get forward in this match for Manchester City, as we expect them to dominate possession. With Newcastle allowing an average of 24 crosses per game, Mendy should be able to get balls into the box. Man City are also -144 to keep a clean sheet, giving Mendy a good chance to get the three bonus points. If Oleksander Zinchenko ($5,100) is the one playing left back for City, he would also be worth playing.
Phil Bardsley ($4,200): Bardsley is not a sexy play by any means but always seems to do something when he's on the pitch. He's only scored under five points twice in his previous nine games. He's nothing that will get anyone excited to play him, but most of the defenders on this slate fit the same category. So if you have to pick one, it's worth picking one who is somewhat consistent while also being cheap and not playing a juggernaut like Manchester City. Erik Pieters ($4,000) could also play right back for Burnley instead of Bardsley, and also makes sense as a punt play.
Goalkeepers to Target
Ederson ($5,900): Besides the cost of playing an expensive goalkeeper, it's hard to make a case against Ederson. Manchester City are massive -950 favorites, so the win is certainly likely. The implied odds that they will keep a clean sheet are just under 60%. On a small slate, paying up for a keeper makes sense because there aren't as many cheap keepers available that can produce a score like the expensive goalie. Ederson has nearly as good of a matchup as it gets in the league and is certainly worth considering in Man City stacked lineups.
Dean Henderson ($4,500): Henderson has been one of the standout keepers in the league this season. He has kept 11 clean sheets in 31 appearances and allowed just 27 goals. He is an underdog against Wolves, but he's allowed multiple goals just once in his past 10 games and allowed just in games against Manchester City, Tottenham and Arsenal during that stretch. He's unlikely to blow up in your face, which is what you want if trying to save money at goalkeeper.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.