Premier League Betting Guide for 7/2/20
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Sheffield United vs Tottenham
Sheffield +1 (no push) -120
Tottenham has been somewhat mediocre this season at 12W-9D-10L, which is only good enough for a 38.7% win rate. They match up with Sheffield United on Thursday in what projects to be an extremely evenly matched game.
Sheffield United is only one point behind Tottenham in the table and they are 11-11-9, giving them a 71% win/draw rate. Both teams have the exact same -4.5 expected goal difference on FBref, so it is clear that this game is a toss-up.
The season’s results and metrics would indicate that a win/draw for Sheffield United is a likely outcome. If you can get Sheffield to win/draw at close to even then that is a bet worth making.
Manchester City vs Liverpool
First Goalscorer: Gabriel Jesus +420
Liverpool clinched the title last week and the oddsmakers believe they will either lose their edge or rotate their squad heavily, as Manchester City are the favorites at even odds to win the match.
With that in mind City will likely be the first team to score in this one and with Sergio Aguero out injured, Gabriel Jesus becomes a leading goal scoring candidate. Jesus has scored 10 goals in only 14 starts this season and his expected goals is much higher at 13.6.
Jesus is averaging 0.81 expected goals per 90 minutes, which is 2nd on the team only behind the injured Sergio Aguero. Obviously, it would be wise to check the lineups before making this bet to make sure Jesus is starting and to see how much rotation Liverpool does.