FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 7/1/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Leicester City at Everton||Everton (+155)||+114||Vardy (+145)|
|Newcastle United at Bournemouth||Bournemouth (+140)||+140||King (+210)|
|Norwich City at Arsenal||Arsenal (-240)||-142||Aubameyang (-200)|
|Chelsea at West Ham||Chelsea (-175)||-136||Abraham (-135)|
This slate revolves around Arsenal and Chelsea. The Gunners (vs. Norwich) and Blues (at West Ham) have plum matchups, and they're in the two matches that should see the most goals. Chelsea and Arsenal will both see gobs of ownership
For the Gunners, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($22; -200) could blow up against a Norwich defense that's short-handed and has shipped 11 goals in its past six road fixtures. Auba has the best anytime goal odds on the slate, and he'll be on penalties. The negatives with him are that he'll be chalk, and he hasn't been utilized as a number-nine in either of the Gunners' three EPL matches since the restart. Still, he's put five shots on target over the last two, so he's more than capable of a multi-goal game against the Canaries even if he's out wide or part of a front two.
If you fade Auba or want to stack an Arsenal attacker with him, look to Eddie Nketiah ($17; +110) or Nicolas Pépé ($18; +145). Given that Nketiah is a buck cheaper and has better goal odds, he'll likely see more ownership than Pépé. But Nketiah paces Arsenal in expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes (0.70), per FBRef, so he's also a great pick and shouldn't be as popular as Auba. I also like Alexandre Lacazette ($16; -110) a lot if he gets into the starting lineup.
The Blues have been good since the restart, including a 2-1 win over Manchester City in their last league game. While West Ham have a ton to play for in their relegation battle, I'm surprised Chelsea are just -175 to win. Tammy Abraham ($19; -135) has the best anytime goal odds in this match, but Olivier Giroud ($17; +105) has started at striker in each of the Blues' last two EPL matches. Unfortunately, we won't know the Blues' lineup at the first lock with Chelsea in the late game.
Willian ($20; +220) has been in dazzling form since play resumed, totaling eight chances created and a goal. He took a penalty last match, though Jorginho ($14; +320), the normal penalty taker, wasn't on the pitch. Christian Pulisic ($16; +200) has a goal in each of the last two league matches, but he did exit early with a calf ailment in FA Cup action on Sunday, which could open the door for Pedro (+240) to start.
Outside of Arsenal and Chelsea, things are wide open as Bournemouth -- who is +140 to beat Newcastle -- are the next biggest favorite. Be warned: this match is an ugly +140 to go over 2.5 goals. With that said, the Cherries desperately need a win in their fight to avoid the drop, and a home match versus the Magpies is a great opportunity for them to get three points. They'll probably be without Callum Wilson (suspended) and Joshua King (injury), so they'll offer some cheaper options, which we'll need if we're loading up on Chelsea's and Arsenal's studs. (If King [$17; +210] winds up being able to play, he'd be worth using.)
I'll probably take a shot at one Cherries attacker. Dominic Solanke ($14; +240) should start in a forward role while Harry Wilson ($14; +260) and David Brooks ($14; +330) have some appeal, too. Brooks has created four total chances in two games since the restart, and that's pretty good considering those were his first games all season. We also should have Philip Billing ($13; +720) on our radar as he's expected to be fit.
Added time -- Bournemouth are bad, so Newcastle's attackers deserve a look. Allan Saint-Maximin ($13; +430) and Dwight Gayle ($17; +270) are the two options I like most. ... Both teams to score in the Arsenal-Norwich match is -118, making Teemu Pukki ($16; +185) an enticing GPP play. ... I haven't touched on the Leicester-Everton match. There's some good attacking talent in it, but we shouldn't see many goals as it's +114 to go over 2.5 goals. Jamie Vardy ($19; +145) could be a big-time GPP difference-maker as he may fly under the radar due to his price and the Foxes' underdog status.
Norwich and West Ham are the places to look if you want floor plays who will be busy.
The Canaries have just three defenders listed on FanDuel who haven't been ruled out or banned, and one of them -- Max Aarons ($11) -- is questionable with a knock. Ben Godfrey ($11) and Jamal Lewis ($9) should have a lot to do at Arsenal. West Ham offer us cheap expected starters in Ryan Fredericks ($9) and Aaron Cresswell ($11). Angelo Ogbonna ($7) would be a sweet value target if he starts, but we won't know if that's going to happen until the first three matches have already locked.
Lucas Digne ($15) has scored at least 18 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. His free-kick and corner responsibilities make him a unicorn among defenders on this slate, and the difficult matchup with Leicester may keep his ownership to a modest level.
Marcos Alonso ($13) is a decent stacking partner with any Chelsea's attacker, and he will be able to get forward against West Ham. His +440 anytime goal odds are really good for a defender, and he's flashed elite upside this season with outings of 38.2, 32.5, and 53.3 FanDuel points.
Added time -- Arsenal full-backs Kieran Tierney ($10) and Héctor Bellerín ($14) should be bombing forward versus Norwich. Neither has created much in attack lately, but that could change in this one. ... Newcastle's Javier Manquillo ($8) has scored between 8.9 and 13.4 FanDuel points in four consecutive outings. That's a solid floor at a bargain price.
Emiliano Martinez ($14) and Kepa Arrizabalaga ($13) have the best win odds and are priced as such. Martinez has better clean-sheet odds by a small margin. The two most likely scorelines in the Arsenal match are the Gunners to win 1-0 (+650) and 2-0 (+600). Two of the four most likely scorelines in the Blues-Irons match involve a Chelsea clean sheet, but neither of them is better than +700.
It makes sense to target a keeper -- Martin Dubravka ($11) or Aaron Ramsdale ($9) -- in the Bournemouth-Newcastle match as it's expected to be the lowest-scoring fixture on the slate. Both teams to score is just -102. It's tough to figure out which keeper to use, however. Bournemouth to win 1-0 is at +600, making it the most likely scoreline. But a 0-0 draw is +650, and the Magpies to win 1-0 is just +800. I lean Dubravka, but it's a difficult call.
Added time -- Leicester have been in a funk since the restart, so I can stomach using Jordan Pickford ($12) against them. Everton have been solid defensively this season, allowing the seventh-fewest expected goals, and with Pickford not that much cheaper than the two big favorites, he shouldn't see a bunch of ownership.