Premier League Betting Guide for 7/1/20
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at ouroddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Everton vs. Leicester City
Under 2.5 Goals -136
Everton and Leicester have both started a little slowly since the restart, with each team struggling to score goals.
Everton tied 0-0 against Liverpool and then squeaked out a 1-0 victory over Norwich in their two games back since the break. In those two matches, Everton had a combined eight shots on target and conceded a combined four shots on target, so the goal totals and scoring chances were held to a minimum for both Everton and their foes.
For Leicester City, it has been a similar story. The Foxes have gone 0W-2D-1L since the restart with a 1-1 tie to Watford, 0-0 tie to Brighton and a 1-0 loss to Chelsea. Similarly, Leicester have had only seven shots on target in these three games with their opponents generating 10 shots on target, so the goal-scoring opportunities have been minimal.
Even if we account for the entire season, Leicester and Everton are both in the top seven for fewest expected goals against, according to FBRef, so both teams have a strong defensive record. I would not expect many goals in this match.
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle
Newcastle to win +220
Newcastle have somewhat long odds to win outright against Bournemouth, but they have had more success than Bournemouth so far this season. Newcastle are 12 points ahead of the Cherries in the table, and they are rated higher in WhoScored.com’s team rankings.
In addition, Bournemouth have lost their only two games since the break (against Wolves and Crystal Palace). Newcastle have been better since the restart at 1-1-1 in the EPL with a 3-0 win over Sheffield United.
Newcastle have been the better team all season, and they are in better form since the restart, so at greater than 2-1 odds, they are a fantastic pick for Wednesday.
West Ham vs. Chelsea
Chelsea to win -170
Chelsea have twice as many points as West Ham this season, and they are a perfect 2-0-0 since the restart. West Ham, meanwhile, have gone 0-0-2.
West Ham have been horrid all season, going 7-6-18 overall, but they have been particularly bad against the top teams in the league.The Hammers are 1-0-6 against the top four, 0-0-8 against the top five and 2-0-8 against the top six. West Ham’s overall win/draw rate is only 41.9%, and against top competition, that clip drops drastically.
West Ham are in 19th place in expected goals, compared to 3rd for Chelsea, so FBRef suggests that the gap is even wider than it appears in the standings. Chelsea have a great chance to win this game and should be a strong bet at -170.