FanDuel Soccer: Bundesliga DFS Helper for Matchday 34
In these times, we're all making adjustments. FanDuel is no different, and they are now offering Bundesliga daily fantasy.
This slate kicks off at 9:30 a.m. EST on Saturday. Lineups will be announced at 8:30 a.m. EST. It's always important to check starting lineups, but it's particularly crucial on this slate as the final matchday could bring us some unexpected changes. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and the lines may move after the article is published.
|Koln at Werder Bremen||Werder (-165)||-245||Selke/Sargent (+125)|
|Bayern Munich at Wolfsburg||Bayern (-150)||-300||Lewandowski (-220)|
|Dusseldorf at Union Berlin||Dusseldorf (-110)||-142||Kownacki/Hennings (+105)|
|Hertha Berlin at Gladbach||Gladbach (-300)||-290||Plea (-110)|
|Hoffenheim at Dortmund||Dortmund (-140)||-300||Haaland (-175)|
|Mainz at Leverkusen||Leverkusen (-410)||-310||Havertz (-175)|
|Paderborn at Eintracht Frankfurt||Eintracht (-330)||-320||Silva/Dost (-175)|
|RB Leipzig at Augsburg||RB Leipzig (-260)||-260||Werner (-220)|
|Schalke at Freiburg||Freiburg (-120)||-174||Petersen (-110)|
This is going to be really fun. Not only do we get a nine-match slate, we should see tons of goals, too. A study I did this spring showed that attacking stacks work best when a team has implied win odds of at least 70% (-233). Four teams -- Gladbach, Leverkusen, Eintracht Frankfurt and Leipzig -- clear that barrier, and none of them are the always appealing Bayern or Dortmund.
In short -- there are a ton of routes we can take this week.
Leverkusen are in a smash spot at home versus a Mainz side that has surrendered 35 goals in 16 away matches this campaign. And Leverkusen still have a ton to play for as they scrap with Monchengladbach for the final Champions League spot, so we should see a top-notch lineup -- one that's fully motivated -- for Die Werkself, something we can't say for everyone on this slate. They're -410 to win, and the match is -310 to go over 2.5 goals.
Kai Havertz ($21; -175 to score anytime) might end up being the highest-owned player on the slate, and he has multi-goal upside. Leon Bailey ($14; +125), Moussa Diaby ($16; +155) and Nadiem Amiri ($13; +270) are listed as probable starters in attack alongside Havertz, and each has decent anytime goal odds. Stacking two of them and fading Havertz is a way to dodge some ownership.
The aforementioned Monchengladbach need a win to clinch fourth place and are -300 to get that victory at home against Hertha Berlin in a match that is -290 to see at least three goals. With Alassane Plea ($19; -110) doubtful, Breel Embolo ($17; +105) holds the best anytime goal odds among the expected starters in this match. Lars Stindl ($16; +130), Jonas Hofmann ($15; +195) and Patrick Herrmann ($14; +180) are also enticing for Gladbach.
Eintracht Frankfurt are the slate's second-biggest favorite as they're -330 to topple relegated Paderborn. Frankfurt's probable lineup has Bas Dost ($14; -175) and Andre Silva ($19; -175) starting together up top, and both could eat in this matchup. Dost gets you access to the same anytime goal odds for cheaper, but Silva takes penalties and puts up 0.82 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes, per FBRef, compared to Dost's 0.50 mark.
RB Leipzig are the other big favorite as they're -250 to win at Augsburg. Timo Werner ($21; -220) has sublime goal odds and will be popular, per usual. Don't be afraid to pivot to other Leipzig options as they have a few good ones, assuming they start a competitive lineup in what is a meaningless match for them. With Patrick Schick and Marcel Sabitzer dinged up, Dani Olmo ($14; +165) could start alongside Christopher Nkunku ($17; +190) behind Werner. You can pair one of them with Werner or stack them while fading Werner if you want to avoid the Werner chalk.
Added time -- It feels really odd to write up a Bundesliga primer and not mention the studs on Bayern (-150) or Dortmund (-140) as top plays. Both sides have nothing to play for and are only modest favorites versus teams that are fighting for Europa League qualification. But if they start anything close to their best lineups, they could roll. You know who the stars are for each team, so I won't rattle them off here. Just know two things -- Robert Lewandowski ($22; -220) is tied with Werner for the best goal odds on the slate, and these teams could offer us value plays if they rotate their squad. ... Werder Bremen (-165) should slip through the cracks with so many big favorites, but they're in a nice spot versus Koln. Any of their starting attackers could be GPP difference makers, and Werder have a chance to avoid automatic relegation if they win.
I'm probably punting at defender this week and spending most of my coin on attackers. With several big underdogs, there are plenty of places to look for cheap high-floor defenders who should be busy. And with a few of the underdogs having little to play for, there could be some unexpected bargain-bin starters at defender. If Hertha Berlin, Mainz, Augsburg or Paderborn start a super cheap center-back, plug him in, take the 10ish points and pay up for attackers.
If you want to be contrarian, however, you can spend up for at least one high-priced defender since I think a lot of people will pay down in both spots.
Robert Skov ($16) has been a DFS loophole since FanDuel started offering Bundesliga, and that should continue Saturday even in a tough matchup at Dortmund. Skov is listed as a defender but has been deployed as a wide midfielder or winger. He generates crosses, handles some set-piece work and has significantly better goal odds (+150) than every other defender. If BVB field a weak starting XI, it would boost Skov's already good fantasy outlook, but he can have a good day even if Dortmund have a strong XI.
Angelino ($13) can be a part of any Leipzig stack. He has one goal and one assist since coming over in January, and his 0.19 expected assists per 90 minutes ranks sixth on Leipzig.
Danny da Costa ($8) is a great low-cost play. He's expected to start at wing-back in Frankfurt's system, and he fired off nine crosses in a game back on June 14th. He's a good stacking partner for Silva or Dost, and he can be used as a one-off play, as well.
Added time -- Bayern's Alphonso Davies ($16) and Benjamin Pavard ($15) might see lower ownership than usual, which means they have to be on our radar if they start. ... Stefan Lainer ($10) and Ramy Bensebaini ($15) are likely starters at full-back for Monchengladbach and will be bombing forward against Hertha. ... Mitchell Weiser ($10) and Daley Sinkgraven ($7) haven't been good DFS plays since the restart, but they're cheap and will be able to get forward against Mainz.
You have lots of favored goalies to choose from. Frankfurt's Kevin Trapp ($13) is the cheapest of the big favorites, but Lukas Hradecky ($15), Yann Sommer ($14) and Peter Gulacsi ($15) are all solid options, too. Gulacsi's $15 price tag and status as the least favored of these four could keep him lower-owned, making him an attractive GPP pick.
Werder's Jiri Pavlenka ($12) is cheaper than that group and still has good win odds (-165). As mentioned earlier, Werder can get into the relegation playoff, avoiding the automatic drop, if they win Saturday. They have a lot to play for, and with Trapp just $1 more, Pavlenka probably won't be too popular, though both teams to score in this match is at -220.
Added time -- Roman Burki ($13) could go under-owned despite being a favorite, and the same goes for Manuel Neuer ($14). ... FanDuel priced Bayern backup Sven Ulreich ($14) the same as Neuer, so there's no value to be had there if Neuer doesn't play. We've got the same situation with Frankfurt as backup Frederik Ronnow ($13) has the same salary as Trapp. Any other backups starting would be value plays, so be on the lookout for that Saturday morning.