Premier League Betting Guide for Saturday 6/20/20
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Watford vs. Leicester
Leicester to win +100
Leicester to win is at a very modest betting line despite the clear massive gap in quality between the two sides. The Foxes are in third place with 53 points and will likely secure a place in the Champions League for next season, while Watford are in 17th and battling to avoid relegation.
Leicester are 16W-5D-8L this year, giving them a 55.2% winning percentage. Unsurprisingly, the Foxes are even better against the current bottom-five teams in the league, going 6-1-1 (75% win rate) in these games.
Leicester have shown they should have a better than 50% chance to win this game, which is what this line implies, so getting them at even odds is a good bet.
Arsenal vs. Brighton
Brighton to win (draw no bet) +116
Brighton are lagging behind Arsenal in the table (11 points behind), but if we dig deeper in the stats, we see the gap start to diminish.
Brighton are nine goals behind Arsenal on goal difference, but Brighton are actually ahead of the Gunners based on FBRef's expected goal differential.
Arsenal are tied for the league lead with 13 draws, so even if we go in with the impression that Brighton may be the slightly better side, it definitely would be beneficial to secure the “draw no bet” to allow security in the result of a tie.
Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace
Palace to win +195
Crystal Palace are ahead of Bournemouth by just about every metric this season, yet they are given somewhat long odds to win this game. Palace are in front of Bournemouth by 12 points in the league table, and they are ahead in all of goal difference, expected goal difference and WhoScored.com’s team rankings.
The data suggests that there is almost no question Crystal Palace are the better side, and they are a great pick to win at almost 2-1. Palace are a mediocre 10-9-10 overall, but they are 6-2-0 against the current bottom five of West Ham, Watford, Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich. This includes a victory over Bournemouth earlier this season.
Palace are not a great team, but they are a clear level above the likes of Bournemouth and the other relegation candidates. They have a better shot than the odds show to get three points from this game.