FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 6/20/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Arsenal at Brighton||Arsenal (+140)||-110||Aubameyang (-115)|
|Wolves at West Ham United||Wolves (+105)||+104||Jiménez (+120)|
|Crystal Palace at Bournemouth||Bournemouth (+150)||+118||Wilson (+150)|
With no sizable favorites, it's another balanced slate.
Wolves (+105) are the closest thing to a big favorite for their road match at West Ham. Wolves are clearly the much better side -- a whopping 31.2 goals better by FBRef's expected goal differential. Raúl Jiménez ($20; +120 to score anytime) and João Moutinho ($15; +650) are always appealing when Wolves are in a good spot. Jiménez has 13 goals and 6 assists and is less goal-reliant for fantasy production than a lot of strikers. He also takes penalties. Moutinho handles the majority of Wolves' free kicks and corners and is more of a floor play. He has tallied one goal and six assists this season.
I like Diogo Jota ($17; +190) as a contrarian way to get exposure to Wolves as he shouldn't be as popular as Jiménez and Moutinho. Jota has decent goal odds and popped off with huge outings of 36.5 and 48.6 FanDuel points right before play was halted.
The other two matches are tough to call, but I want a piece of the attack from each side in the Arsenal-Brighton game. Normally a match at -110 to go over 2.5 goals wouldn't be too sexy, but that's tops on this slate.
On the Gunners side, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($23; -115) has multi-goal upside and owns the slate's best anytime goal odds. On the negative, Auba was played as a winger Wednesday at Manchester City, which dings his fantasy outlook. Fortunately, the Gunners are in the early game, so we'll know their lineup at the first lock.
Eddie Nketiah ($16; +185) looked lively early on against City and played in a number-nine role before fading once Arsenal went down a man. If Nketiah keeps that spot on Saturday, there are a lot of reasons to like him. Alexandre Lacazette ($18; +155) and Nicolas Pépé ($19; +220) would be in play if they crack the starting lineup, something that neither of them did midweek.
For Brighton, the betting lines may be doing them a disservice. They're 1.4 goals better than Arsenal by expected goal differential, and they're at home -- though home-field advantage doesn't mean as much right now. Brighton are pretty cheap across the board. Neal Maupay ($15; +150) and Leandro Trossard ($12; +240) are cost-effective ways to get exposure to guys with respectable anytime goal odds.
In the Palace-Bournemouth game, I like the Cherries more than oddsmakers do. Expected goal differential has these two sides nearly even, and Bournemouth have a lot more to play for as they try to stay in the top flight.
Callum Wilson ($17; +150) and Joshua King ($16; +210) should lead the line for the Cherries, who are slight favorites (+150). King has taken the only penalty Bournemouth have gotten this season and accounts for 0.46 combined expected goals and assists per 90 minutes, a number slightly better than Wilson's 0.43 mark. Harry Wilson ($12; +250) has seven goals in 19 EPL starts and is a nice point-per-dollar choice.
Added time -- West Ham shouldn't see much ownership, but it's not like they have no shot against Wolves. The Hammers should be plenty motivated, too, as they try to avoid the bottom three. Sébastien Haller ($18; +230) and Michail Antonio ($16; +320) could be difference-makers in GPPs. ... The same can be said for Palace attackers. Jordan Ayew ($15; +200) and Wilfried Zaha ($14; +270) are worth considering. Zaha is a bet-on-talent choice at an easy-to-like price. ... Robert Snodgrass ($14; +330) does some corner and free-kick work for West Ham, so he's always at least on the radar.
Wolves' full-backs are appealing options at West Ham. Matt Doherty ($15) is priced up and probably won't be super popular because of it, but he's put up at least 14 FanDuel points in five straight games, posting blow-up outings of 39.3 and 36.4 FanDuel points in that span. The other full-back spot for Wolves will likely go to Rúben Vinagre ($9) or Jonny ($9). Jonny would be the more enticing of the two as he's gone for at least 19 FanDuel points in three straight.
West Ham offer two cheap expected starters who should be busy in Angelo Ogbonna ($8) and Ryan Fredericks ($5). Rob Holding ($7) is another cheap play who may be thrust into action for an Arsenal side that's short-handed at the back. All three make sense and free up cash for elsewhere.
I am into both Jack Stacey ($13) and Adam Smith ($10) of Bournemouth. As I said above, I like them as a sneaky-good team to target on this slate, and these two started at full-back in their last EPL match. The return of Steve Cook ($11) could push Nathan Ake ($14) back out to full-back, which is what WhoScored predicts. If that happens, it boosts Ake's fantasy value as he'd be able to get forward more.
Added time -- Arsenal full-backs Héctor Bellerín ($12) and Kieran Tierney ($12) are fine picks in a match in which they should be able to get forward. I expect Arsenal to see plenty of the ball. ... Patrick van Aanholt ($15) profiles as a sweet GPP option. He shouldn't see much ownership and is capable of having a big day as an attack-minded full-back.
Much like Friday, keeper is tough. You can find reasons to go with any of the six expected starters. As I said yesterday, make sure your keeper pick correlates with the rest of your lineup.
Rui Patrício ($14) has the best win odds, and three of the four most likely scorelines involve a Wolves clean sheet, with two of them being Wolverhampton wins.
Bernd Leno ($13) had a really good game midweek at Man City, making nine saves. He's now gone for at least 10 FanDuel points in six straight outings. With Arsenal a slight favorite, he looks like one of the best options in goal.
Mat Ryan ($8) is the underdog I like most. He's dirt cheap, and Brighton (+200) are capable of beating Arsenal. Even if he doesn't get the win, Ryan should be busy, but a multi-save win wouldn't be a shocking outcome here. The ceiling is high, but the floor is low. If I use Ryan, I'll also grab a Brighton attacker.
Added time -- Aaron Ramsdale ($11), Lukasz Fabianski ($9), and Vicente Guaita ($9) are all fine plays, as well. They should see save volume, and while none of them have great win odds, none are overwhelming underdogs, either. The Palace-Bournemouth matchup is just +118 to go over 2.5 goals, so it's a nice place to look for a clean sheet. Taking a stab at one of Guaita or Ramsdale makes sense. I'd side with Ramsdale between the two.