Bundesliga Betting Guide for Matchday 32
The Bundesliga campaign rolls on with a short turnaround for Matchday 32.
FanDuel Sportsbook has odds for each of the games, so let's look at a few of the best bets.
Wolfsburg at Monchengladbach
Draw (+260) or Wolfsburg to win (+240)
Monchengladbach are the better side here, but it's closer than the lines show.
Gladbach are 10 points ahead in the table but have just an 8.4-goal advantage in expected goal differential, per FB-Ref. Other than a surprising loss to Eintracht Frankfurt, Wolves have been good since the restart, winning three matches, drawing one and losing one (to Dortmund). Wolves also won the reverse fixture at home against Gladbach by a 2-1 scoreline.
Monchengladbach, meanwhile, have won just twice in six outings post-break and are coming off a heartbreaking loss at Bayern Munich on Saturday. And given how home-field advantage has meant very little without fans, I like taking Wolfsburg to win or draw.
Paderborn at Union Berlin
Draw (+300) or Paderborn to win (+410)
It's not easy to get behind Paderborn. I mean, they haven't won a match since January 25th. But I think they can get something from this game -- just like they did when they drew 1-1 in their home matchup with Union Berlin.
While Paderborn have been miserable this season, Union Berlin haven't been very good, either. The expected goal differential between these two sides is actually just 10.4 goals in favor of Union, compared to the 16-goal difference in actual goal differential. And neither side has been in top form since the restart, with both taking four points from six matches.
Paderborn are bad, and this could blow up in my face. But betting value is betting value, and I don't think Union should be a -155 favorite.