FanDuel Soccer: Bundesliga Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchday 31
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Bundesliga. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 9:30 a.m. EST and features six matches.
|Saturday, June 13th|
|Freiburg at Wolfsburg|
|Borussia Dortmund at Dusseldorf|
|Frankfurt at Hertha Berlin|
|Union Berlin at Koln|
|Werder Bremen at Paderborn|
|Monchengladbach at Bayern Munich|
Matchweek 31 features three top-six sides and is highlighted by an early afternoon clash between Bayern Munich and Monchengladbach. Borussia Dortmund is the largest favorite on the slate, with an implied win probability of 75.59% on the road against bottom-three side Dusseldorf. Bayern Munich is close behind them, with an implied win probability of 72.2%, followed by Wolfsburg, with an implied win probability of 59.9% at home against Freiburg. Hertha Berlin, Koln, and Werder Bremen round out the slate as slight favorites.
With Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund both in action, a large number of the league's biggest stars are available at the top end of the salary range this weekend. Jadon Sancho ($22) is the most expensive player on the slate and will likely be popular just one game removed from a hat trick against Paderborn. Bayern are without Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski due to suspension, and Serge Gnabry is iffy with a back injury. So Bayern will be cheaper than normal, and any value plays they offer will likely see plenty of ownership.
A six-game slate should provide enough value options to make including multiple high-priced forwards/midfielders a possibility. When this happens, look for ownership to be reduced on players in the middle of the forward/mid player pool and at the very top of the defender player pool.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Jhon Cordoba, FWD/MID, Koln
FanDuel Salary: $18
Cordoba is the second most expensive player not on Bayern or Dortmund, and as such, he will likely fly under the radar as the more well-known stars around him soak up all the ownership in his price range. With the exception of his most recent game, Cordoba has scored double-digit FanDuel points in each outing since the league resumed, and he has accumulated two goals, one assist, and 10 shots (five on target) during that span.
He has 12 goals in 26 appearances this season and has been a consistent producer since arriving in the Bundesliga in 2015. He has demonstrated his ceiling multiple times this campaign, with 50-plus FanDuel point performances against Wolfsburg and Hertha Berlin. Koln is winless since the league resumed, but their poor results are hiding a decent goal-scoring record that has seen them score in each of their last five matches and average 1.6 goals per match over that stretch.
Union Berlin is allowing an average of 2.2 goals per away match this season and has conceded 12 goals over their last five matches. Cordoba has the fourth-best odds to score of any non-Munich or Dortmund player, and his potential upside in this matchup is being overlooked by Klon's poor results and the number of options available at the top end of the forward/midfielder player pool this weekend.
Vedad Ibisevic, FWD/MID, Hertha Berlin
FanDuel Salary: $15
Ibisevic has been quiet over his last three starts but found the net in back-to-back matches right after the league restarted, producing 25.0 and 33.9 FanDuel points in those contests. His lack of production since the hot start can be partially attributed to the strength of his opposition, with Hertha Berlin facing both RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund on the road. Berlin did manage to come away from those two difficult fixtures with a draw and a one-goal loss and have been in great form with three wins outside of those two results.
Berlin has scored 11 goals over their last five fixtures, and they have looked dominant against the three non-elite sides they have faced (Hoffenheim, Union Berlin, Augsburg), beating them by a combined score of 9-0. Hertha Berlin has the fourth-highest implied goal total on the slate at 1.72 goals, slightly behind Wolfsburg's total of 1.86 goals.
Outside of their shock one-goal victory over Wolfsburg, Frankfurt has been largely unimpressive over their last five matches, with two wins, two losses, and a draw. They have allowed an average of 2.2 goals per match over that span (due in large part to conceding five goals to Bayern Munich) and have been one of the worst away sides in the Bundesliga this season with 10 losses and one draw in 15 fixtures.
Ibisevic is in a great spot this weekend.