FanDuel Soccer: Bundesliga Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchday 30
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Bundesliga. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 9:30 a.m. EST and features five matches.
|Saturday, June 6th|
|Bayern Munich at Bayer Leverkusen|
|Paderborn at RB Leipzig|
|Mainz at Frankfurt|
|Hoffenheim at Dusseldorf|
|Hertha Berlin at Borussia Dortmund|
Matchweek 30 features four sides currently in the top five of the Bundesliga table in Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, and RB Leipzig. Leipzig is the largest favorite, with an implied win probability of 88.9% at home against Paderborn, who sit on the bottom of the league table. Dortmund is the next largest favorite, with an implied win probability of 73.7% at home against Hoffenheim, followed closely by Bayern Munich, who has an implied win probability of 68.8% on the road against Leverkusen. Hoffenheim and Frankfurt round out the slate as slight favorites in pick'ems.
With four top sides in action, there is an abundance of talent available at the top end of the salary range. Timo Werner ($23) is set up to continue his good run of form and will likely be the highest-owned player on the slate. Robert Lewandowski ($22) has scored in six of his last seven games but has a tougher matchup and is more expensive than Dortmund's Jordan Sancho ($20) and Erling Haaland ($19). Expect ownership to be spread out between these three studs and a stars-and-scrubs lineup construction to be popular, increasing ownership on value options and decreasing it on mid-priced players.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Daichi Kamada, FWD/MID, Frankfurt
FanDuel Salary: $16
Kamada sits directly in the middle of the salary range that should see a decrease in ownership as a result of the plethora of good high-priced options available. He has two goals over his last three matches, including a performance against Freiburg in which he placed five shots on goal. When he doesn't score, his floor has been nonexistent, with numerous single-digit FanDuel performances, but his form and great matchup create a ceiling that makes him well worth considering for tournaments on Saturday.
Frankfurt is only slight home favorites in this fixture, but they have the highest implied goal total outside of the elite trio of Munich, Dortmund, and Leipzig. Mainz is winless in their four matches since the league resumed and have conceded an average of 2.25 goals per match. Mainz has struggled on the road all season and has the most road goals allowed in the league at 35. On the other side of the coin, Frankfurt has been a decidedly better side at home and currently sits sixth on the home table, with an average of 2.2 goals scored per home match, fifth-best in the league.
Kamada and Frankfurt are set up for success, and their outlook is being overshadowed by the presence of the elite sides on the slate.
Robert Skov, DEF, Hoffenheim
FanDuel Salary: $15
Skov has been productive since the Bundesliga returned to action, notching FanDuel point performances of 7.4, 34.6, 14.4, and 20.6 over his last four fixtures. Despite being listed as a defender on FanDuel, Skov has been operating in an attacking role for Hoffenheim -- three times as an attacking right-mid in a 4-2-3-1, and once as a forward in a 3-1-4-2.
In those four games, he has registered an impressive 14 shots. Combine his offensive duties with his role as the primary free-kick taker for Hoffenheim, and it's easy to see why his upside is unmatched by any other defender on the slate. Given his unique situation, Skov isn't expected to truly fly under-the-radar this weekend, but his ownership will likely come in lower than it should be. All of the stud high-priced attacking options should lead lineups to look for value at defender, and many may be unable to afford Skov after including two or three options from Dortmund, Bayern, and Leipzig.
On top of his productive role, Skov's matchup is also a great one this weekend. Duesseldorf has just one win in their last four matches, with nine goals conceded (five to Bayern Munich) over that stretch. Hoffenheim has four goals in their last two matches and have been an impressive road side all season, with just one defeat in their last six fixtures away from home.
Don't let the abundance of top tier attacking talent push Skov off your radar. He's an exceptional value at his salary.