FanDuel Soccer: 2 Bundesliga Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchday 27
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Bundesliga. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 9:30 a.m. EST and features five matches.
|Saturday, May 23rd|
|Bayer Leverkusen at Mönchengladbach|
|Werder Bremen at SC Freiburg|
|Borussia Dortmund at Wolfsburg|
|Hoffenheim at Paderborn|
|Eintracht Frankfurt at Bayern Munich|
Matchweek 27 features all three of the teams currently on top of the Bundesliga table in Bayern Munich, Dortmund, and Leverkusen, as well as seven of the top-10 sides. It is highlighted by a clash between Mönchengladbach, who sit third with 52 points, and Bayer Leverkusen, who are in fifth with 50 points. Bayern Munich is the largest favorite on the slate, with an implied win probability of 88.2%, followed by Dortmund with an implied win probability of 58.3%. The other three matches are all projected to be tight contests, with Hoffenheim the next-largest favorite with an implied win probability of 47.6%.
The presence of both Bayern Munich and Dortmund on the slate should draw ownership towards the high end of the FWD/MID spot, with Robert Lewandowski ($23), Erling Haaland ($22), Serge Gnabry ($20), and Jadon Sancho ($20) all likely to be popular. This should lend itself toward a stars-and-scrubs approach being the most common lineup construction on the slate, opening up under-the-radar options in the middle salary range. That said, Bayern's status as a massive home favorite makes them a solid cornerstone for lineup building. Despite having similar price tags to Dortmund's stars, they are in a far better spot.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Wout Weghorst, FWD/MID, Wolfsburg
FanDuel Salary: $19
Both sides enter this matchup in great form, Wolfsburg is unbeaten in their last seven and won their first match since the break, while Dortmund comes into this fixture off a four-goal victory over Schalke in last week's Revierderby. Ownership will likely be higher on Dortmund, the more well-known side, but they face a difficult obstacle coming off the emotional high of a derby win and traveling on the road to Wolfsburg.
Weghorst missed Wolfsburg's first game back through suspension but will return this weekend and is looking to add to his team-leading 11-goal total. Dortmund has been vulnerable at the back on the road this season, conceding 23 goals in 13 away league matches, the eighth-most in the Bundesliga and far more than any other top-six side. Weghorst's high salary should keep his ownership low despite him being tied for fifth in the league in goals scored.
Weghorst fits well into a stars-and-scrubs lineup construction that centers on Bayern Munich and fades Dortmund.
Dennis Srbeny, FWD/MID, Paderborn
FanDuel Salary: $14
In direct contrast to the Dortmund-Wolfsburg clash mentioned above, both Paderborn and Hoffenheim enter this weekend in the midst of a terrible string of results. Paderborn is fighting to avoid relegation and is winless in their last seven fixtures, while Hoffenheim is clinging to a mid-table position and winless in their last seven, as well.
Both sides have issues at the back. Hoffenheim is allowing 1.8 goals per match, and Paderborn is conceding 2.1 per match. Those issues give this matchup the third-highest total on the slate -- 3.36 goals -- making it a good under-the-radar clash for tournaments this weekend.
Srbeny is having a decent season amid Paderborn's struggles. He has four goals in seven starts since joining from Norwich City in January and is averaging 2.1 shots per appearance. Paderborn's implied goal total of 1.4 is the fourth-highest among underdogs this weekend, and Srbeny has the fourth-best odds to score among players at his salary of $14.
His salary falls in the middle range that may see reduced ownership with lineups opting for multiple high-priced stars from Bayern and Dortmund. Don't overlook this fixture's potential for goals this weekend.