Bundesliga DFS: FanDuel Helper for Matchday 27
In these times, we're all making adjustments. FanDuel is no different, and they are now offering Bundesliga daily fantasy.
Finally, some good news.
The slate kicks off at 9:30 a.m. EST on Saturday. Lineups will be announced at 8:30 a.m. EST. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
|Bayer Leverkusen at Mönchengladbach||Gladbach (+135)||-198||Plea (+165)|
|Werder Bremen at Freiburg||Freiburg (+125)||-136||Petersen (+140)|
|Hoffenheim at Paderborn||Hoffenheim (+110)||-174||Skov (+115)|
|Dortmund at Wolfsburg||Dortmund (-135)||-164||Haaland (-140)|
|Eintracht Frankfurt at Bayern Munich||Bayern (-800)||-370||Lewandowski (-400)|
Well, Bayern Munich will be popular. The German giants are -800 to win at home versus Eintracht Frankfurt, and no one else on the slate has better win odds than Dortmund's clip of -135. So, yeah, you need some exposure to Bayern, and they can be stacked in several ways.
In a study I did recently, I found that attacker-attacker stacks work best when the team you're stacking has win odds of at least 70%. At a line of -800, Bayern's implied win odds are 88%. With the caveat that my study was Premier League-based and FanDuel's Bundesliga scoring system is different (no points for chances created, most importantly), there were four times this EPL season in which a team -- it was Manchester City every time -- had win odds of at least 88%. In two of those games, City had four forwards/midfielders score 25-plus FanDuel points. In the other two games, they had one and zero forwards/midfielders hit the barrier of at least 25 FanDuel points.
Soccer is a crazy game, so while it seems like Bayern should roll -- and the most likely scorelines, per FanDuel Sportsbook, are 2-0 and 3-0 in favor of Bayern (+700) -- stacking two (or more) Bayern attackers is still a high-variance play for DFS.
All of Bayern's big dogs -- Robert Lewandowski ($23), Serge Gnabry ($20) and Thomas Mueller ($18) -- are in play. Lewa, who is a hard-to-believe -400 to score anytime, takes pens and is a monster, registering 26 goals in 24 Bundesliga starts. Gnabry (-150 to score anytime) has 11 goals and nine assists while Mueller (+100) has totaled six goals and 16 assists.
For me, I'll probably fade Lewandowski due to his likely sky-high ownership and pivot to Gnabry, who has at least two shots in each of his last nine matches in all competitions, including 12 shots over his last two outings. A Mueller-Gnabry stack isn't too tough to make work. Of course, Lewa is capable of slotting home three or four goals and making this strategy look silly.
Also, Leon Goretzka ($12) deserves a shout. He started in a central-midfield role for Bayern at Union Berlin last weekend. While he scored a mere 1.29 FanDuel points, it's easy to buy into the idea of getting access to Bayern's attack for $12 if he's in the lineup again.
Dortmund (-135 at Wolfsburg) are the second-biggest favorites, and Erling Haaland ($22) and Jadon Sancho ($20) are always in play. But after Bayern, the thing I want to make sure I do on this slate is tap into the Leverkusen-Mönchengladbach fixture. It's an evenly matched clash, with Gladbach (+135) a slight home favorite, and it is at -198 to go over 2.5 goals. Six players in the match are at +185 or better to score anytime. It could be perfect for fantasy.
For Leverkusen, Kai Havertz ($17) is priced pretty modestly after a two-goal, 40-FanDuel-point outburst a week ago. He should be popular. You can also look to Leverkusen's Moussa Diaby ($15), Karim Bellarabi ($14) and Kerem Demirbay ($11). And Lucas Alario ($16) has the best anytime goal odds on Bayer, at +170.
On the flip side, Mönchengladbach have been a well-balanced team all season, with six players netting between five and nine goals in league play. That means there are several viable options for us. Alassane Plea ($19) has nine goals and seven assists, and his price puts him up there with the stars of Bayern and Dortmund, meaning he could go under-owned. The same goes for Marcus Thuram ($18), who has seven goals and eight assists.
Starting with Bayern once again, Benjamin Pavard ($16) and Alphonso Davies ($14) should spend plenty of time in attacking areas, and they also have a good shot to get the clean-sheet bonus. Either guy can be stacked with an attacker or Manuel Neuer, depending on what you're going for. I lean toward Davies when picking between the two. He has one more assist in roughly 400 fewer minutes, though Pavard has two more goals. Both should be popular.
Anyone on Eintracht Frankfurt's back line can give us a high floor in a match in which their defenders should be under siege. Of note, David Abraham ($8) started at center-half last weekend, and if that happens versus Bayern, he'd be a great point-per-dollar play. Check Frankfurt's lineup and go from there.
Ramy Bensebaini ($15) took a penalty last match for Mönchengladbach, and that makes him a unicorn among defenders. He also tallied an assist in that match with two crosses. In what should be a fantasy-friendly game against Leverkusen, he's enticing.
Wolfsburg fullbacks Kevin Mbabu ($14) and Paulo Otavio ($13) check a lot of boxes for GPPs. Wolfsburg are home underdogs to Dortmund, but BVB matches are usually good for fantasy. These two should have to tend to their defensive responsibilities, and they'll have chances to get forward. Each recorded an assist last time out, though Otavio isn't usually a starter. Jerome Roussillon ($9), the normal starter, came on as a sub. He'd be a nice value play if he gets in the starting XI on Saturday.
Daley Sinkgraven ($7) is a cheap way to get a piece of the Leverkusen-Mönchengladbach game. He started in Leverkusen's 4-0 win at Werder Bremen in Matchday 26, and while 2.8 FanDuel points won't get you excited, he played in a few dangerous balls, finishing with three crosses, and should be busy both in defense and attack at Mönchengladbach.
Manuel Neuer ($15) has -- by far -- the best win odds on the slate, and his clean-sheet chances are stellar, too. Goalie-attacker stacks were one of the better performing stacks, per my research, so don't hesitate to pair him with Lewandowski, Gnabry, or Mueller.
The downside is that Neuer is $2 more than any other keeper, and he'll be popular. And in the event he lets in a goal, the majority of his points would probably come via the win bonus since he shouldn't have much save volume to fall back on. A clean-sheet win gets him 17 FanDuel points, though, before factoring in saves.
We haven't mentioned the Werder Bremen-Freiburg match yet. Freiburg are 10 spots ahead in the table and 30 goals better on goal differential. Despite that, they're only +125 to win at home against Werder Bremen, a team which desperately needs points in its relegation battle. Werder has netted just 28 goals in 25 league matches, and Freiburg has allowed only 14 goals in 12 home league games.
Freiburg keeper Alexander Schwolow ($11) has a shot to have a big game here, but he comes with risk as the goalie with just the fourth-best win odds. If you roster Schwolow, you could take a stab at a Freiburg attacker, too.
Hoffenheim's Oliver Baumann ($12) has the third-best win odds as Hoffenheim are +110 to win at Paderborn, a side at the bottom of the table and one with only 30 goals in 26 league matches. Hoffenheim have a superb defensive record on the road, conceding just 12 times in 12 away fixtures. But it's not a great defense as they've shipped 34 goals in 14 home matches. It's hard to trust Hoffenheim, but the win odds are solid for Baumann.