FanDuel Soccer: Premier League Helper for Matchweek 29
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST. Lineups will be announced at 9 a.m. EST.
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely to Score|
|West Ham at Arsenal||Arsenal (-185)||-162||Aubameyang (-185)|
|Brighton at Wolves||Wolves (-160)||+104||Jiménez (+105)|
|Watford at Crystal Palace||Crystal Palace (+155)||+128||Deeney (+175)|
|Newcastle at Southampton||Southampton (-155)||-126||Ings (-150)|
|Norwich at Sheffield United||Sheffield United (-155)||-102||Mousset (+110)|
|Spurs at Burnley||Burnley (+165)||+112||Wood (+130)|
Four of the six matches have a clear favorite, per FanDuel Sportsbook, with Palace-Watford and Spurs-Burnley the exceptions. That gives us several teams we can feel good about targeting, and it should lead to ownership being fairly dispersed outside of Arsenal. Not only are the Gunners the biggest favorite (-185), their matchup with West Ham looks to be the best fantasy environment. It's at -162 to go over 2.5 goals, with no other matches better than -126 to see at least three goals.
After Arsenal, Wolves (-160), Southampton (-155) and Sheffield United (-155) are comfortable home favorites and should attract ownership.
The Burnley-Spurs and Watford-Palace fixtures don't have a clear favorite and aren't expected to be high scoring. That makes them pretty ugly for DFS, but using attackers from either of those matches will likely differentiate your lineup as the masses figure to get most of their forwards/midfielders from Arsenal, Wolves, Southampton and Sheffield United. It is worth noting some significant line movement in Burnley-Tottenham game. The Clarets were slight underdogs early in the week, but they've moved to slight favorites, with Chris Wood's anytime goal odds dropping from +145 to +130.
As we just touched on, Arsenal are the slate's most attractive team. They are the biggest favorite (-185), according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and their matchup with West Ham has slate-best odds to go over 2.5 goals (-162). Stacking them is awfully enticing against a West Ham side that's shipped 49 goals in 28 EPL matches this season.
Given the fantasy-friendly matchup, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($23) is a great play and should be one of the slate's highest-owned players. Auba -- who carries slate-best anytime goal odds of -185 -- has 17 goals and one assist this season in the EPL. He's tallied four goals and 10 total shots across his past four matches in all competitions.
Oh, and if you're into narratives. Auba might be extra motivated after his nightmare miss last week that contributed to Arsenal going out of the Europa League.
Auba's miss in stoppage time pic.twitter.com/JXzUXAOQZd
— Bleacher Report Live (@brlive) February 27, 2020
If you want to avoid the Auba chalk, use Alexandre Lacazette ($18) and/or Nicolas Pépé ($20). Lacazette, who isn't a lock to start, owns marks of six goals and four assists in 15 EPL starts this season, and he's at -105 to score anytime, the third-best odds on the slate. Pépé -- the only player other than Aubameyang to take a penalty this season for Arsenal -- has four goals and six assists in 16 league starts. He's created four chances in each of his past two EPL outings, and the Ivory Coast international is +145 to score anytime.
My other favorite team to stack on this slate is Wolves. Here are Wolverhampton's goal totals over their last four games in all competitions: three, three, three and four. Sure, two of those matches came against an Espanyol side that is last in La Liga, but the other two were EPL outings versus Spurs and Norwich, with Wolves bagging three at Tottenham last weekend.
Just like we had with Arsenal, Wolves -- who are -160 to win, second-best on the slate -- offer us one stud play who should be chalk as well as a few other appealing options. The chalk Wolves guy will be Raúl Jiménez ($19). Jiménez has been a beast this season, netting 13 goals with six assists. He's taken all three of Wolves spot kicks in EPL action. Despite all that, Jiménez is just +105 to score anytime, making him an easier-to-stomach fade than Aubameyang, who is -185 to score anytime.
Wolves alternatives are Diogo Jota ($18) and Adama Traoré ($13). For me, Traoré -- as long as he's able to play through his shoulder ailment -- is one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate. The Spaniard was in dazzling form not that long ago, creating exactly two chances in six straight matches from January 1st to February 14th. He's got a ceiling that not many others can sniff in this price range. I'll be overweight on Traoré as long as he starts. If Traoré is out, Pedro Neto ($11) would become a nice value option, assuming he starts.
As for Jota, he's scorching hot, recording three goals and an assist across his past two EPL matches (48.6 and 36.5 FanDuel points). There's a chance he doesn't see big-time ownership, as the price bump he's received puts his salary up there with the likes of Lacazette, Pépé and Jiménez.
Lastly, I want to mention Danny Ings ($16) and Oliver McBurnie ($17). Ings' salary has dropped after two straight lackluster outings, but with Southampton a -155 home favorite over Newcastle, now is a great time to pounce. Ings is very goal-reliant in DFS, but he's -150 to score anytime Saturday, the second-best odds on the slate.
McBurnie is more of a placeholder for whomever Sheffield United -- -155 to win versus Norwich -- start in attack. Oddsmakers have Lys Mousset ($12) with the top anytime goal odds in this match (+110), but Mousset has been in the starting XI just once in Sheffield's last five matches. McBurnie, on the other hand, has started four times in that span and has fired off eight shots over his last two matches. The Blades-Canaries clash is -102 to go over 2.5 goals and has sneaky-good fantasy appeal, as Norwich have played a fantasy-friendly style all season
Added time -- James Ward-Prowse ($18) dominates corner and set-piece duties for the Saints, who should control the match versus Newcastle. Just make sure JWP is in midfield and not at right-back like he was last match. Over the last two matches, Michail Antonio ($16) has created six chances with a goal and an assist. The Gunners have conceded two goals to both Everton and Olympiacos in their last two home matches. Chris Wood ($15) is the most attractive play from the Spurs-Burnley matchup, and as we said in the intro, bettors have been all over his anytime goal odds, which are currently at +130.
The top end of the defender pool isn't all that sexy this week, as we lack stud attacking full-backs. Add to that the plethora of solid high-priced forwards/midfielders at our disposal, and I'll probably be avoiding the expensive defenders so I can jam in the attackers I want.
I won't be avoiding Ryan Bertrand ($11). Facing a Newcastle side that sees the ball just 38.2% of the time away from home, a league-low clip, Bertrand should have ample opportunity to get forward. He's been a solid producer lately, going for at least 8.2 FanDuel points in eight consecutive outings, with five games of at least 13.2 FanDuel points in that span. Bertrand has at least one chance created in all eight of those matches. He can be paired with the aforementioned Ings or stacked with Saints goalie Alex McCarthy in hopes of double-dipping on the clean-sheet bonus. The Magpies have been blanked in four straight league matches, and two of the three most likely scorelines, per FanDuel Sportsbook, involve a Saints clean sheet.
George Baldock ($10) plays right-wing back in Sheffield United's three-at-the-back system, and he's their cheapest expected starting defender. The Blades have been stout defensively all year, giving up the second-fewest goals (25) in the league through 28 matches, so Baldock has solid clean-sheet odds. On top of that, Norwich's open style should give him chances to get forward and send crosses into the box. Last time out against Brighton, Baldock created two chances.
An injury to Jonny has thrust Rúben Vinagre ($9) into the Wolves' starting XI at left-wing back. He totaled 18.2 FanDuel points at Spurs last week, with all of his scoring coming via defensive actions. He should be able to do more in attack at home against Brighton. Patrick van Aanholt created two chances versus Brighton in Matchweek 28, and Vinagre is a cheap way to get exposure to Wolves. Plus, two of the three most likely scorelines involve a Wolverhampton clean sheet.
Added time -- Bukayo Saka ($13) and Héctor Bellerín ($11) should start at full-back for Arsenal and will likely spend a lot of time getting forward. Chris Basham ($14) has been a consistent fantasy producer for the Blades. He's got double-digit FanDuel points in eight straight and has gone for fewer than 9.5 FanDuel points just once in his last 16 matches.
Rui Patrício ($13) has the second-best win odds on the slate, and, as we just said, his clean-sheet odds are excellent versus Brighton. Prior to letting in two goals at Tottenham, Patrício had kept a clean sheet in three straight matches. He's also made at least three saves in five straight games, so there's a floor here even if Wolves concede.
Dean Henderson ($12) and Alex McCarthy ($11) offer decent clean-sheet odds as well as a good chance at a win, as Sheffield United and Southampton are both -155 to win. Personally, I'd side with McCarthy. He's a buck cheaper and is facing a Newcastle side that's been horrible in attack. Norwich, Henderson's opposition, have shown some offensive firepower this year.
Added time -- Even though he has the best win odds, Bernd Leno ($14) is shaping up to be more of a GPP play. Arsenal's defense is darn near impossible to trust, and Leno is the most expensive keeper. Still, he makes sense if you're stacking the Gunners' attack. Ben Foster ($10) could slip through the cracks. Watford are slight road 'dogs at Palace, but the Eagles are miserable offensively (11 goals in 13 home matches and just 25 goals in 28 games for the season).