Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 26
Which Premier League matches offer betting value for this week on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Norwich vs. Liverpool
Liverpool to win -380
Liverpool is a huge favorite, and you won’t win much from betting on them, but there is value in this play because they should be an even larger favorite than -380. Liverpool are 24W-1D-0L on the season, and they are 11-1-0 away from home, giving them a 91.67% away win rate.
On the other side, Norwich are the worst team in the league at 4-6-15. They are firmly in last with only 18 points, 6 behind 19th-place Watford. This is essentially the best team in the history of the EPL matching up with this season's worst team, and at a line of -380, Liverpool’s implied win odds are less than 80%.
This is not a lock and over-betting on this game would be a mistake, but Liverpool’s chances of winning do seem to be better than the odds would indicate.
Southampton vs. Burnley
Burnley +1 (no push) +105
Southampton have strangely been having a decent season at 9-4-12 despite being a terrible home team. The Saints are 3-2-7 at home this year, good for just a 25% home win rate.
On the other side, Burnley are a tricky road opponent as they are 3-3-6 away for a 50% win/draw rate away from home. The home/away stats would indicate Burnley has a better chance to earn a win/draw than their odds indicate, and this is confirmed by the fact that Burnley is 3 spots ahead of Southampton in WhoScored.com’s team rankings.
These teams are evenly matched, and home field does not appear to be a major advantage based on prior results, so Burnley should be expected to win/draw this weekend.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham
Aston Villa +1 (no push) -105
Tottenham are 12 points ahead of Villa in the standings and are clearly the better team, but unlike the Southampton-Burnley match, home field could prove crucial in this matchup. Spurs are 2-5-5 away this season, and their last three away games were draws to 20th-place Norwich and 19th-place Watford as well as a loss to 13th-place Southampton.
On the other hand, Villa are 5-2-5 at home, and they even led Spurs until the 73rd minute in their previous league game at Tottenham. Aston Villa proved they can hang with Tottenham on the road with a healthy Harry Kane, so they should perform much better at home with Kane out of the lineup.