3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 23
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features 7 matches.
|Saturday, January 18th
|Crystal Palace at Manchester City|
|Wolves at Southampton|
|Everton at West Ham|
|Sheffield United at Arsenal|
|Aston Villa at Brighton|
|Bournemouth at Norwich|
|Chelsea at Newcastle|
The 23rd main slate of the season features three big-six sides in Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Manchester City is the largest favorite on the slate, and one of the largest favorites on any slate this year, with an implied win probability of 90.9% at home against Crystal Palace. The next closest team is Chelsea, with an implied win probability of 66.1% on the road against Newcastle. Brighton (60.8%) and Arsenal (54.5%) round out the large favorites against Aston Villa and Sheffield United, respectively. Norwich, Southampton, and Everton are all slight favorites in pick ems.
As is usually the case when they are present, this slate runs through Manchester City. However, that is, even more, the case than usual this week, given their massive implied win probability and implied goal total of 2.76 goals, which is .79 above the next closest team (Chelsea). Crystal Palace hasn't kept a clean sheet in seven games despite facing only one big-six side (Arsenal) during that stretch. It's likely best to not overthink it, don't fade Manchester City, and look to differentiate lineups elsewhere this weekend.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Aaron Mooy, FWD/MID, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $11
Mooy is expected to return to the pitch this weekend after missing out on last week's game due to injury. He will return to an excellent situation, operating as a central mid on a home favorite facing Aston Villa. Brighton has the third-highest implied goal total on the slate, 1.91 goals, only .06 behind Chelsea, and a .26 above the next closest team (Arsenal). Their positive outlook and inexpensive prices could make them popular value options this week, and in the past, that may have included Mooy, but these days its more likely that it raises ownership on Leandro Trossard ($14) and Neal Maupay ($14).
Even if Mooy's ownership is slightly inflated due to his low price, he will likely still be under-owned relative to his outlook and price. Mooy has a combined 18 chances created across his last 9 games, including 7 in his last 2. His role as a corner tacker gives him a high floor in a match Brighton is expected to control, and after missing last weekend's game with a knock, he may fly under-the-radar this weekend.
Aston Villa's defense has struggled all season -- especially on the road where they have conceded 23 goals in 11 matches -- the most in the Premier League (tied with Newcastle). Over their last six away matches, they have only held their opposition to under two goals once, and it took a struggling Burnley side to pull it off. Brighton is in an excellent spot this weekend, especially given their affordable prices.
Todd Cantwell, FWD/MID, Norwich
FanDuel Salary: $13
Norwich enters this weekend in the midst of a nine-match winless streak that extends back to the end of November. Luckily for them, their opposition, Bournemouth, has just one win in their last 11 matches, dating back to early November. Norwich's struggles haven't been nearly as bad as Bournemouth's. They have three goals over their last three matches, compared to Bournemouth's zero, and their attacking options have managed to produce viable fantasy performances, despite the negative results.
Bournemouth, on the other hand, has lost their last three matches by a combined score of 0-9. They allowed multiple goals to Watford (3), West Ham (4), and Brighton (2), no exactly a murder's row of opponents. All of this adds up to an implied goal total of 1.60 for Brighton this weekend, just .05 below Arsenal. This bodes well for Cantwell, who has been hit or miss all season in terms of FanDuel points produced.
Cantwell has eight performances with over 20 FanDuel points this season, four of which were above 30 points. His other results have been less positive, with numerous single digital outings, but the upside is there. Ownership on Norwich will likely center on Teemu Pukki ($17), and Emiliano Buendia ($16), who has been more consistent this season, leaving Cantwell as a nice under-the-radar option.
Bernard, FWD/MID, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $11
Everton is enjoying a good run of results following the appointment of Carlo Ancelotti as manager in late December. They have three wins in their five matches across all competitions, with their two losses coming against Manchester City and Liverpool (both by just one goal). Bernard has been fully healthy for three of those matches, getting the start and playing 72+ minutes in two of them. His most recent performance against Brighton, saw him create four chances and produce 14.6 FanDuel points, which may be enough to keep him in the lineup against West Ham this weekend.
West Ham's recent four-goal victory over a dismal Bournemouth side is a lone bright spot in their home form. Prior to that match, they had lost their last four home fixtures by a combined score of six goals to 11. The run included a difficult slate of opponents (Arsenal, Leicester, and Tottenham), but it also included Newcastle. In their current form, Everton should be able to extend West Ham's miserable home form for at least one more week, and Bernard is likely to benefit at low ownership.