SOCCER

Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 20

Tom Sokol Dec 27th, 2019
This weekend features some evenly matched fixtures. Who should you bet on when Watford host Aston Villa?

Which Premier League matches offer betting value for this week on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers.

Brighton vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth +1 (no push) +105

Brighton and Bournemouth are dead even in the standings at the midway point of the season, each with a 5W-5D-9L record and a -6 goal difference. Brighton are favorites due to home field advantage, but the data from this season suggests they are favored by too much.

Brighton are 3-3-3 at home this year while Bournemouth are 3-1-5 away from home. This suggests that there may not be much of a gap between Brighton’s home form and Bournemouth’s away form.

This is an evenly matched game, and Bournemouth should be able to earn at least a point.

Watford vs Aston Villa

Aston Villa +1 (no push) -125

Watford are home for this matchup, but that is about all they have going for them as they have been an awful side home and away all season long. The Hornets are 2-7-10 on the year with a -21 goal difference, good for 19th place in the standings and 20th in WhoScored.com’s team rankings.

Aston Villa are only one spot ahead Watford in the standings, but they are five points clear and have a superior goal difference by 13 goals. Also, Villa are 12 spots ahead of Watford, according to WhoScored.com’s team metrics.

Watford have won just twice in 19 tries this year, which is good for 10.5% win rate. Expecting Watford to beat anyone seems foolish at this point, so Aston Villa to draw/win is a strong play.

Southampton vs Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +1 (no push) -120

This is another matchup where we are taking the superior team to win/draw against an inferior team at the inferior team’s stadium. Palace are five points ahead of the Saints in the table, and their goal difference is 10 goals better than Southampton’s.

Southampton are the worst home team in the league at 2-1-6 with a -15 goal difference, though the goal difference is skewed by one horrible day versus Leicester. On the flip side, Palace are 3-2-4 with a -4 goal difference away from home, so Palace are better away than Southampton are at home.

Palace should be able to earn at least a point in this matchup, and there is no reason for them to be an underdog.