2 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 17
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features five matches.
|Saturday, December 14th
|Newcastle at Burnley|
|Bournemouth at Chelsea|
|Aston Villa at Sheffield United|
|Norwich at Leicester City|
|West Ham at Southampton|
The 17th main slate of the season features a single big-six side, Chelsea, and is heavy on home favorites. Leicester City is the largest favorite on the slate, with an implied win probability of 81.8% at home against Norwich. Chelsea is right behind them with an implied win probability of 80% at home against Bournemouth. Next up is Sheffield United and Southampton, who both have implied win probabilities of 53.5% at home against Aston Villa and West Ham, respectively. Burnley rounds out the slate with an implied win probability of 51.2% at home against Newcastle.
This slate features the fewest elite options on the main slate in weeks. Leicester's stars will carry the highest ownership on the slate, as they are the clear cut best option given Chelsea's recent struggles. Norwich has conceded 34 goals this season, the second-most in the Premier League, and should do little to stop the wrecking ball that is Leicester City (6 wins and 14 goals in their last 6 fixtures).
With that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Andy Carroll, FWD/MID, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $14
What a long strange trip Andry Carroll's career has been. His playing time for Newcastle has been minimal this season, but he has started to turn things around over the last two fixtures. He made one start and played 72 minutes against Sheffield United, and then saw 31 minutes off the bench against Southampton. In those two appearances, he produced 2 assists, created 2 chances, and scored a combined 30.4 FanDuel points. It may be enough for him to receive his second start of the season against a struggling Burnley side on Saturday.
Over their last six games, Burnley has conceded 14 goals, tied with West Ham for the most in the Premier League. Those stats are slightly unfair, as they include games against Tottenham and Manchester City, but they also include a two-goal defeat to Crystal Palace and a three-goal defeat to Sheffield United.
Newcastle is also in the middle of their most productive goal-scoring stretch of the season, with 11 goals in their last six matches, the most of any non-big six sides (plus Leicester City) over that stretch. Jonjo Shelvey ($17) has been crucial to their production, with four goals in their last six matches. He is questionable for this week due to a sore calf, but if he is active, he makes for an excellent stack with Carroll (assuming Carroll also starts).
Shane Long, FWD/MID, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $13
All of the attention at Southampton is on Danny Ings ($20), and rightfully so, as he looks to score a goal for a sixth straight match this weekend. Long hasn't featured much for Southampton this year, but that has started to change with back-to-back starts and over 85 minutes played in his last two matches. In those matches he produced 9.9 and 20.6 FanDuel points without a goal, contributing a combined four chances created, six shots, one shot on goal, and one assist.
The supporting numbers look strong for Long, he just needs to convert to have a tournament-winning performance at low ownership. He will have an excellent chance to do that this weekend, playing at home against a poor West Ham defense. As mentioned above, the Hammers have conceded 14 goals, tied for the most in the Premier League, over their last six games. Unlike Burnley, their opposition hasn't been nearly as tough, and they have surrendered multiple goals to Arsenal, Newcastle, Burnley, Tottenham, and Wolves.
On the other side of the pitch, Southampton has been decently productive in the final third this season. Except for their season opener against Burnley and their nine-goal loss debacle to Leicester City, they have scored in every game this season. They have scored nine goals over their last six matches, which includes clashes with Arsenal and Manchester City, and have two goals in each of their last two home matches. Long appears to be a consistent part of that Southampton attack now, he just hasn't put it all together with a goal yet, which should keep him under-the-radar in an excellent matchup this weekend.