3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 15
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Wednesday slate, which starts at 2:30 p.m. EST and features six matches.
|Wednesday, December 4th
|Tottenham at Manchester United|
|Watford at Leicester City|
|West Ham at Wolves|
|Aston Villa at Chelsea|
|Norwich at Southampton|
|Everton at Liverpool|
The 15th main slate of the season is heavy on home favorites. With the exception of Manchester United, whose implied win probability is even with Tottenham's, all the home sides on the slate are favored to win. Chelsea is the largest favorite with an implied win probability of 78.3% against Aston Villa, followed by Leicester City (75% against Watford) and Liverpool (73.7% against Everton). Rounding out the slate is Wolves with an implied win probability of 57.4% against West Ham, and Southampton with an implied win probability of 56.5% against Norwich.
With four big-six sides and Leicester City all in action, there are a plethora of options available at the high end of each position. This is likely to create a slate where a stars-and-scrubs lineup construction is popular, with ownership being spread out across the numerous expensive options available and heavily concentrated on the chalk value plays. This should leave mid-range options under-owned.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
John McGinn, MID/FWD, Aston Villa
FanDuel Salary: $15
The Chelsea revival tour has hit a snag recently, with back-to-back losses to Manchester City and West Ham. Of the big-six sides in action on Wednesday, they appear to be the most vulnerable and will face an Aston Villa side that has been surprisingly productive on the road this season. Despite being tied for last on the away league table with just four points, Villa has scored 11 goals in seven away matches, the fifth most in the Premier League. Coming off a draw with Manchester United, Villa has a chance to add to Chelsea's recent two-game slide.
McGinn has been consistent this season, contributing on both ends of the pitch. He is averaging 19.7 FanDuel points per match and has an uncanny knack for producing big games against elite opposition. In his five matches against big-six clubs this season, McGinn has FanDuel point totals of 16.8, 24.3, 13.9, 41.9, and 34.7. In those matches, he averaged 2.0 shots and 1.2 chances created, which would be decent value Wednesday for his salary.
McGinn's salary and matchup should lead to extremely low ownership levels. The public is still high on Chelsea, and McGinn shares his salary range with Christian Pulisic ($15), Willian ($16), and, if he plays, Paul Pogba ($15).
Robert Snodgrass, MID/FWD, West Ham
FanDuel Salary: $15
After a slow start to the season, Snodgrass has really started to round into form over the last month. Since the end of October, he averaging 22.04 FanDuel points per game and has played the full 90 minutes in his last four matches. He is the primary set-piece taker for the Hammers, a role that should provide value against Wolves on Wednesday.
Wolves have also turned things around and currently sit sixth on the league table, riding a nine-match unbeaten streak after going winless in six matches to open the season. Despite their turnaround in results, Wolves defense remains an issue, and their streak has been largely held together by managing several close draws. Wolves have allowed a goal in each of their last six matches and have kept a clean sheet in just three matches all season.
On the other end of the pitch, West Ham has been excellent in the final third, but their results haven't shown it. Over their last four matches, they have three losses and one win, with five goals scored. Their one-goal victory over Chelsea in Matchweek 14 finally saw their results turn around, and they could be positioned to end Wolves' unbeaten streak this weekend.
Ayoze Perez, MID/FWD, Leicester City
FanDuel Salary: $15
The abundance of big-six sides on the slate should lower ownership on fringe players on good sides. Perez is one of those, as ownership on Leicester City usually doesn't extend too far beyond Jamie Vardy ($22) and James Maddison ($17). Perez may have lower ownership than even his midfield teammate, Youri Tielemans ($13), due to Youri's lower price. This should allow for Perez to be rostered at low ownership in a great matchup.
Perez lacks consistency but has demonstrated upside over the last month-plus, with a goal against Brighton and a hat trick against Southampton. He has taken eight shots, with three on goal, across his last three matches, and he is well-positioned to take advantage of a Watford defense that has conceded five goals over their last two matches.
There isn't a hotter team in the Premier League right now than Leicester City. They have won six straight and have scored at least two goals in every Premier League fixture since September 14th. Until they slow down, it is wise to gain exposure to their attacking options wherever possible, especially if the context of the slate is likely to keep their ownership in check. That should be the case for Perez this weekend.