3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 13
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, November 23rd
|Liverpool at Crystal Palace|
|Leicester City at Brighton|
|Burnley at Watford|
|Southampton at Arsenal|
|Wolves at Bournemouth|
|Norwich at Everton|
|Chelsea at Manchester City|
The 13th main slate of the season features four big-six sides and Leicester City. It's highlighted by an afternoon clash between Manchester City and Chelsea, in which Manchester City has an implied win probability of 69.7%, the second-highest on the slate. Everton is the largest favorite on the slate with implied win odds of 73% at home against Norwich. Liverpool and Arsenal slot in right behind Manchester City, with implied win probabilities of 68.8% against Crystal Palace and Southampton, respectively. Rounding out the favorites is Leicester City, with an implied win probability of 50% on the road against Brighton.
This slate has it all. Four big-six sides, two playing each other and two in good matchups, one of the hottest teams in the Premier League in Leicester City, a mid-table clash between Wolves and Bournemouth, and a Watford side fighting for survival against Burnley. There are multiple options at every salary range, but ownership is likely to center on Liverpool as the public (rightfully so) likely trusts them more than Arsenal, and Chelsea's impressive form is likely to slightly suppress ownership on Manchester City despite City's higher implied win probability.
Chelsea has looked good, but a glance at their recent schedule helps explain why that might not matter this weekend. Chelsea has won six Premier League fixtures in a row against Crystal Palace, Watford, Burnley, Newcastle, Southampton, and Brighton. While that's a vast improvement from their start to the season, it doesn't mean they're ready to be an obstacle to Manchester City. Chelsea has played only two big-six sides this season -- three if you count Leicester -- and their record in those three matches is two losses and a draw with a combined score of 2-7. Strongly consider fading Chelsea's form and building around Manchester City.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Ilkay Gundogan, MID/FWD, Manchester City
FanDuel Salary: $12
With the plethora of options available and the perceived difficult matchup for Manchester City, their secondary playmakers are likely to slip under-the-radar despite their roles on a large home favorite. Gundogan doesn't have the upside of Raheem Sterling ($21) or Sergio Aguero ($19), but at a price of just $12, that's completely fine. He has outscored Kevin De Bruyne ($18) in three of his last four matches and is averaging 18.4 FanDuel points per match over his last four games.
Gundogan is primarily a creator, with 13 chances created over his last five matches, but he also puts shots on goal, with three in his last six matches from 15 total shots. Manchester City has the highest implied goal total on the slate at 2.19, which bodes well for Gundogan's opportunities. His salary is simply too low for his role in one of the best attacks in the world, and his ownership is likely to be lower than it should be as well due to the public likely overrating Chelsea.
Manchester City also enters this weekend slightly underrated because of their performance relative to previous years. They sit fourth in the league table and don't have a statement win in the Premier League. In fact, their most memorable results have all been negative -- a loss to Norwich, a defeat to Wolves, and a recent loss to Liverpool. They will have a chance to remedy that with matches against Chelsea, Manchester United, and Arsenal in the next month, but for now, they will likely go under-owned relative to their projected outlook.
Richarlison, MID/FWD, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $18
On a slate with fewer big-six sides, Richarlison facing Norwich at home would likely be popular. As it stands, despite his excellent matchup, the number of high-profile players in his salary range is likely to keep his ownership below where it should be. Alexandre Lacazette ($19), Kevin De Bruyne, James Maddison ($18) and Tammy Abraham ($17) should all be attractive options this weekend and draw ownership away from RIcharlison.
Richarlison has only three goals on the season, but he's still been decently productive, scoring at least double-digit FanDuel points in five of his last six matches. Everton has the second-highest implied goal total on the slate at 2.16, above everyone except Manchester City. Richarlison has the best odds to score of any player outside of the big-six sides plus Leicester City and has better odds than some well-known stars like Roberto Firmino ($16) and the previously mentioned Abraham. Richarlison is in a similar position to many elite options this weekend, but his ownership should be much lower.
Richarlison's positive outlook is driven by a matchup with the worst road team in the Premier League, Norwich City. Through six matches, Norwich has one draw and five losses with 12 goals conceded and only a single goal scored. During that stretch, they played just a single big-six side, Liverpool, with the rest of their poor performances coming against lesser opposition, including multi-goal losses to West Ham, Burnley, Crystal Palace, and Brighton. All of Everton's attacking players are in an excellent spot this weekend.
Diogo Jota, MID/FWD, Wolves
FanDuel Salary: $13
After a difficult start to the season that saw them secure two draws and four losses from their opening six fixtures, Wolves have turned things around. They are undefeated in their last seven Premier League matches, including a win over Manchester City and a draw with Arsenal, and they haven't failed to score since their very first match of the season. They are averaging 1.5 goals per match over their last six and will visit a Bournemouth side that just conceded two goals to Newcastle.
Wolves' turnaround has led to impressive DFS production from their stars. Most notably, Raul Jimenez ($17), who has three goals in his last four games and an average of 28.2 FanDuel points per game during that stretch, and Joao Moutinho ($14), who is averaging 25.1 FanDuel points over his last three matches. Both of them are likely to be somewhat popular plays, while Jota remains under the radar because he hasn't scored a goal since September.
Jota has been producing recently despite not scoring, with FanDuel point totals of 18.9, 18.3, and 13.9 in his last three matches.. All of the underlying metrics point to him scoring soon -- he has 13 shots, six shots on goal, and four chances created in those three matches. His ownership shouldn't be too high, which makes him an intriguing selection for large-field tournaments this weekend.