Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 9
Which Premier League matches offer betting value for this week on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers.
Everton vs. West Ham
West Ham +1 (no push) -115
Everton are off to a shockingly poor start to the season with a 2W-1D-5L record and -7 goal differential, which has put them in 18th place in the table. Everton are on a four-game losing streak in the league, with three of the losses coming by more than one goal despite playing a manageable schedule, which included games against Bournemouth, Sheffield United and Burnley.
West Ham have been far from dominant, but they are playing at a league average level at 3-3-2 with an even goal differential and a 1-3-0 record away from home. The Hammers should have much better odds here if we go based off recent performance.
Everton have underachieved so far this season, and the bookmakers still rate them as a quality team. But so far this year the results say otherwise. West Ham should be able to secure a point here.
Aston Villa vs. Brighton
Aston Villa to win +135
Villa are currently one spot ahead of Brighton in the standings with eight points in eight matches, but they have been playing at a much higher level than their record would indicate. Villa has had equal or more shots than their opponents in each of their last four matches, and they rank fourth in the league this season in shots on target. Villa will eventually be rewarded for their consistent peppering of opposing goalkeepers.
On the flip side, Brighton are coming off a miraculous 3-0 win over Tottenham, but overall they rank 15th in WhoScored.com's team rankings compared to Aston Villa's fifth-place ranking. Brighton sit 17th in shots on target per game, so they are not threatening their opponents goal at anywhere near the same rate as Aston Villa is.
Despite being behind in the standings, Aston Villa have actually been having a better season than Brighton so far this year, and they are playing at home this weekend. Expect Villa to get all three points.
Manchester United vs. Liverpool
Liverpool to win -125
Liverpool, along with Manchester City, are making history in the EPL, as they finished last season with a 30-7-1 record and have followed it up with a perfect 8-0-0 start to this season. Liverpool have won 83% of their league games over the past two seasons, but at -125, their implied odds to win are only 55.6%.
Manchester United are off to a dreadful start to the campaign by their standards, as they are in 12th place at 2-3-3, and they are even worse in the WhoScored.com team rankings (13th). United will surely bounce back to some extent s the year goes on, but it is unlikely they will find their footing against what is perhaps the most dominant Premier League team of the century.
The huge gap between Liverpool's winning percentage the past two seasons compared to the implied odds may be a tad inflated since United is more talented than an average EPL team, but even so, Liverpool has already defeated three teams currently in the top five in the table in Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester, so it is not as if they have gone unchallenged so far this year. Jurgen Klopp's side should keep the winning streak going this weekend.
