SOCCER

Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 38

Tom Sokol May 10th, 2019
Tottenham completed an epic comeback to defeat Ajax in the Champions League semifinals, but should we expect them to beat Everton on Sunday?

Matchweek 38 should prove to be exciting, as the title race is still in play with one game remaining.

Using Soccer odd as the source for lines, let's take a look at some bets you should zero in on this week.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from Paddy Power, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers.

Tottenham vs Everton

Tottenham to win +115

Spurs boast a 12-1-5 home record (67% win rate) and rank fourth place in the league with a matchup against Liverpool looming in the Champions League final. On the flip side, Everton have had a middling season (currently in eighth place), and they have a mediocre 5-4-9 away record (50% win/draw rate).

Given Spurs' home form compared to the Toffies' away form, you would expect Tottenham to be a larger favorite in this game, but at +115, their implied odds of winning are 46.51%. The data suggests Spurs have a better than 50% chance to win this game, though, so bettors could have a slight edge at these odds.

Burnley vs Arsenal

Burnley +1 (no push) -145

Arsenal have been poor away from home this season at 6-4-8 (33% win rate), and they have been in terrible form as of late. The Gunners are 1-1-4 in their last six league matches, including a tie at home against 17th place Brighton last weekend.

Burnley are a respectable 7-2-9 (50% win/draw rate) away from home, and they are 8-4-6 in their last 18 matches. With Burnley playing at home, they should be able to at least eke out one point from Sunday's matchup.

Leicester vs Chelsea

Chelsea to win +185

Leicester City are 8-2-8 at home this season (56% win rate), and when paired with the Blues' 9-2-7 away record (50% win rate), that would indicate Chelsea have a slightly less than 50% chance to win this matchup.

However, at +185, Chelsea's implied odds to win are 35.1%, which is significantly lower than the home/away data would indicate. This game is of little importance to both sides, but if both teams play something close to their regular lineups, then Chelsea should have a much better than 35% chance to win.