This Friday, when one nation is licking it’s World Cup wounds and celebrating its independence by stuffing their faces with artery-clogging food, two other nations will collectively be holding their breath for 90-plus minutes as their national football teams square off against one another in a match many have had circled on the calendar as a potential quarterfinal matchup since the World Cup draw.

Host nation shouldn’t have been a penalty). Against can score from anywhere.

Getting down to the numbers (which, let’s face it, is why you’re here), as I stated earlier, it’s a battle between our top two teams in terms of the “nERD" metric, which measures overall team efficiency by estimating how many goals a team would score against an average international opponent. Game Simulator rules in favor of the hosts, giving Brazil a 1.45 to 1.19 advantage, and a 42.93% chance to win in regulation with the odds increasing to a 63.13% chance should the match go to extra time or penalties. With a 32.01% chance the teams are level at the end of regulation, that leaves Colombia with a mere 25.07% chance of winning after the first 90-plus minutes, and a 36.87% chance in extra time and or a penalty shootout.

The mighty Brazil have the numbers on their side, while Colombia have their run of form to speak for itself. Either way, we should be in for a tightly contested match that hopefully lives up to the hype and continues the trend of endless drama this World Cup seems bent on providing us with.