Champions League Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 10/2/18
Tuesday brings the next set of Champions League group stage matches, with FanDuel offering a six-game main slate. The slate will not include the two early matches of the day -- Hoffenheim versus Manchester City and Juventus against Young Boys.
|Tuesday, October 2nd|
|Viktoria Plzen at Roma|
|Benfica at AEK Athens|
|Ajax at Bayern Munich|
|Real Madrid at CSKA Moscow|
|Valencia at Manchester United|
|Shakhtar Donetsk at Lyon|
Every team on the slate has dropped points in their domestic league. Bayern come into the match against Ajax off a loss. Valencia secured their first win in six matches on Saturday. Real Madrid has dropped five points in their last two matches.
Let's look at some players at various price points.
Forwards to Target
Robert Lewandowski ($13,000) -- The Bayern Munich forward is the most expensive player on the slate, but playing at home should help the Polish striker. Ajax are coming off a win, but they were dominated by the team above them in the Eredivisie, PSV Eindhoven, the prior matchweek by a score of 3-0. Ajax have the best possession number in their domestic league, but they still allow 12 shots per match. When Bayern, the team that leads the Bundesliga in possession, does get the ball, Lewandowski can shield the defender to allow his team to move into threatening positions. Lewandowski is the 18th player to reach 50 goals in UEFA club competition. He scored in Bayern's opening UCL match against Benfica and created two chances. Lewandowski has three goals in the Bundesliga in five matches. Bayern are huge favorites with multiple goals expected, and the central striker should be involved.
Edin Dzeko ($10,500) -- Dzeko is off to a slow start for Roma, but the matchup against Plzen works in his favor. Plzen have allowed nine goals, which is the most among the top five teams in 1. Liga. They have lost two of their last four matches by a combined score of 7-0. They gave up two goals to CSKA Moscow at home in their first UCL group stage match. Now Plzen must travel to Roma, where they are big underdogs. Dzeko does have two assists and is averaging five shots per game in Serie A to lead Roma. Roma have a 73.3% chance to score at least two goals in this match.
Moussa Dembele ($7,500) -- Dembele was rested for the last 20 minutes of Lyon's match against Nantes this past weekend, so he should be ready to go against Shakhtar on Tuesday. In three starts and four total appearances, he has two goals and an assist in Ligue 1 play. He has the top odds as anytime goalscorer in this match. Shakhtar have allowed only five goals in the Ukrainian Premier League, but they did allow two goals to Hoffenheim at home in the first set of Champions League matches. Lyon are second in their domestic league in possession and lead the league in shots per game. Dembele knew he would score for Lyon, and Tuesday could bring his next tally.
Midfielders to Target
Toni Kroos ($9,000) -- There are some cost savings in the midfield ranks, and it may be the best place to find value in the Real Madrid lineup. Gareth Bale ($11,500) is without a goal in two matches while Kroos continues to pull the strings for Madrid with his 94.5% pass success rate. He had a 95.5% rate in the first Champions League game and managed four shots. In the match against Roma, Kroos also took 13 corners, created 5 chances, and recorded 3 defensive actions. Real Madrid have better than 60% implied win odds, and Kroos should be the offensive conductor.
Daniel Parejo ($8,000) -- The central midfielder plays on the edge and has collected a red card this season, but he is a pivotal play maker for Valencia and is often behind the ball on set pieces. He scored 26 FanDuel points in the first game of the group stage by creating seven chances against Juventus. Parejo also had two shots, but he managed to rack up the large points tally despite a yellow card. His points were mainly accumulated through passing, including corners. Parejo does have a goal in La Liga play and is coming off one of his best matches of the season as he recorded seven defensive actions against Real Sociedad over the weekend.
Andre Simoes ($7,000) -- Simoes probably won't get much attention since he plays for AEK Athens. But he is one of their highest-rated players this season and can contribute on both sides of the ball. In the opening Champions League match against Ajax, he had three blocks, one clearance, and three tackles. He also drew three fouls as he showed his comfort level on the ball. Playing at home should help Athens, and that seems to have shifted the odds less in Benfica's favor. Still, much of Simoes' point total should come on the defensive end as Athens have allowed only two goals in five games in the Greek Super League.
Defenders to Target
Nicolas Tagliafico ($6,500) -- It is unlikely that the defender will score two goals for Ajax and replicate his 59-point performance from UCL Matchweek 1. However, he should be busy and have a chance to eclipse the five defensive actions he tallied against Athens. Tagliafico has played some center-back this season, but he has been at left-back recently, which should give him a chance to get forward on the counter-attack against Bayern. He has yet to score a goal in the Eredivisie, but he is averaging over eight defensive actions per match.
Nikita Chernov ($4,500) -- There are many great plays defensively on this slate, with full-backs on favored teams always being worth a look. However, it is worth pointing out one of the best values of the day as Chernov will look to back up his 10-point performance from round one. He is a 22-year-old central defender who plays very composed. He recorded six clearances in the first Champions League match of the year and averages over six defensive actions per game for CSKA Moscow. Real Madrid are owning close to 64% possession in La Liga and are favored in this match. That should put Chernov under pressure, giving him plenty of opportunities for clearances, especially on set pieces orchestrated by Kroos.
Keepers to Target
Robin Olsen ($5,000) and Anthony Lopes ($5,000) -- It is always good to find a keeper with a good chance for a clean sheet. Olsen and Roma have a 77% implied win probability with 1-0 and 2-0 being the top score choices, according to Paddy Power. Olsen has allowed one goal in his past two matches, making three saves against Lazio this past weekend. Plzen have scored only once in their last two games and average just nine shots per match. Lopes and Lyon are a bit more risky, but the keeper has 17 saves in his last four matches. A clean sheet for Lyon is two of the top three top score picks in the match against Shakhtar. The Ukrainian side did manage 13 shots against Hoffenheim in UCL Matchweek 1, but Lyon are allowing less than a goal per game in their domestic league, compared to 10 given up by Hoffenheim in six matches.
Douglas Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Douglas Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username aquemini03. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.