3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 32
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, March 31st|
|Southampton at West Ham United|
|Leicester City at Brighton & Hove Albion
|Swansea City at Manchester United|
|Huddersfield Town at Newcastle|
|Bournemouth at Watford|
|Burnley at West Bromwich Albion|
|Manchester City at Everton|
Matchweek 32 is all about Manchester, with Manchester City and Manchester United as the only elite sides on the slate. Both sides are 1.5 goal favorites, but Manchester United are larger moneyline favorites (-475) than Manchester City (-305) because the Red Devils are playing at home.
Due to the rift between José Mourinho and Paul Pogba and their recent Champions League defeat to Sevilla, the narrative around Manchester United these days is consistently negative. However, their form in the Premier League has been excellent, with their previous three matches producing victories over Liverpool, Chelsea, and Crystal Palace. As the only elite side in the matches kicking off at 10:00 a.m., it is unlikely that United go under-owned, but they may be less owned than City due to the negativity surrounding the Red Devils. For large field tournaments this weekend, don't shy away from the Mourinho's crew.
From the remaining five matches, Newcastle and Watford are tied for the largest favorites with a spread of 0.5 goals at home against Huddersfield Town and Bournemouth, respectively. The other three matches are pick'ems, with West Brom as slight home favorites while Leicester City and Southampton are slight road favorites. With the exception of the West Brom match, which has an over/under of just 2.0 goals, all of these matches have an over/under of 2.5 goals.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 32.
Solly March, Brighton & Hove Albion
FanDuel Salary: $5,500
As has been discussed in this article over the past couple match weeks, Brighton players are worth a roster spot when they're home, and they're worth completely fading on the road. Over their last six home matches, they have four wins, one draw and one loss, with the loss coming against Chelsea. During that span, they outscored non-elite opponents by a combined score of 10-4.
March hasn't been a consistent starter for Brighton since the start of the season, but with the continued suspension of Anthony Knockaert, March's chances of making the starting XI this weekend are greatly increased. Over his last six starts, he has averaged 13.7 FanDuel points per match, a decent clip for his low salary of just $5,500. As an outside-mid in Brighton's preferred 4-4-1-1 formation, March's primary responsibility in the final third is providing crosses to Glenn Murray, who has thrived at home recently with four goals in his last three matches.
Counter to Brighton's impressive home form is Leicester City's continued road struggles. Despite their recent blowout victory over West Brom, the Foxes have been miserable defensively on the road all season, conceding 26 road goals, the sixth-most in the Premier League. Of those 26 goals, 15 have come from open play and a league-worst 10 have come from set pieces, meaning the Foxes struggle to handle service into the box. That increases the outlook for both March and Murray at home this weekend.
Mohamed Diamé, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
As strange as it seems, at 1.6 goals, Newcastle have the highest implied total on the slate outside of the two Manchester clubs. They have been strong at home recently, with wins over Manchester United and Southampton in their last two home matches. Goals had been hard to come by until their three-goal performance against Southampton, which saw Chelsea loanee, Kenedy, score a brace. Coming into this match, Kenedy should be the focus of Newcastle ownership, leaving Diamé under owned despite his recent performances.
Diamé's impressive run of form has seen him produce double-digit FanDuel points in each of his last nine matches. Over his past five matches, he has averaged 21.9 FanDuel points per outing, doing so with only a single goal and no assists. As a center-mid playing behind the front two in Newcastle's 4-4-1-1 formation, Diamé produces FanDuel points on both ends of the pitch.
Over his last five matches, he has totaled 16 tackles, 13 interceptions, and 8 clearances to go along with 5 chances created and 2 shots on goal. With Newcastle expected to control the match, Diamé's floor may be lower, but his upside is higher, and he should be one of the lowest-owned options on the Magpies this weekend.
Troy Deeney, Watford
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
The forward pool is full of appealing options this weekend, and the $8,000 price point in particular is crowded. Deeney is the same price as Marcus Rashford, Callum Wilson, Ayoze Perez, and Steve Mounie. All of those players have been goal-dependent, hit-or-miss options for the majority of the season, and having them all at the same price should spread ownership out among them. Rashford is the exception -- if he starts, he should see heavy ownership, further lowering the ownership on the remaining players in this tier.
While Deeny's last two matches against Liverpool and Arsenal saw him produce a measly 4.5 combined FanDuel points, his previous matches against non-elite sides provide optimism for this weekend. Before Liverpool and Arsenal, Deeney produced FanDuel points totals of 30.25 and 33.5 against West Brom and Everton, respectively. He also scored against Chelsea on February 2nd, bringing his goal total over his last six matches to three. Currently, Watford have the fourth-highest implied total on the slate at 1.52 goals, and Deeney has the fourth-best odds to score of any players outside of the Manchester clubs.
With the exception of their shock 3-0 victory over Chelsea, Bournemouth have struggled on the road recently. They have allowed an average of two goals per match over their last six, and they permitted a striking-deficient Huddersfield squad to put four past them. On the road, the Cherries allow 15.5 shots per match to their opposition, the sixth-most in the Premier League. Conversely, Watford have been excellent at home recently, with four wins and 11 goals scored in their past six matches. Everything seems set up for Deeney to continue his impressive run of form against non-elite sides.