3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 29
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches.
|Saturday, March 3rd|
|West Bromwich Albion at Watford|
|Stoke City at Southampton
|West Ham United at Swansea City|
|Bournemouth at Leicester City|
|Huddersfield Town at Liverpool|
|Newcastle at Liverpool|
Matchweek 29 is highlighted by a pair of excellent home fixtures for the only two elite sides on the slate. Both Tottenham and Liverpool are 2.0-goal favorites against Huddersfield Town and Newcastle, respectively. Liverpool's implied total of 2.75 goals is slightly higher than Tottenham's implied goal total of 2.5 goals, and both are more than half a goal above all of the other sides on the slate.
With both elite sides sharing an excellent outlook, the main differentiator between them is that Liverpool have the afternoon timeslot. However, due to their excellent form and full week of rest, all of the usual stars for Liverpool are expected to be in action, so there isn't much risk in saving a spot for any of them in a lineup. From a pricing standpoint, both Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($8,000), and Heung-Min Song ($8,500) seem like values, which should lower the ownership of similarly priced players, such as Stoke City's Xherdan Shaqiri ($9,000).
In the remaining four matches, Leicester City, Southampton, and Watford are all 0.5-goal home favorites. Swansea City is the smallest favorite on the slate, as slim moneyline favorites in a pick 'em match at home against West Ham. With the high-priced options on Liverpool and Tottenham expected to carry heavy ownership, players from the remaining sides with FanDuel salaries above $7,500, should carry less ownership, as they will be difficult to slot in next to the higher-priced elite options.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 29.
Marko Arnautovic, West Ham United
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
As the road side with the highest implied total on the slate, West Ham are in an interesting position this weekend. With Swansea City currently sitting in 18th and West Ham only three points above the relegation zone, this will be an important clash for both sides. At his price of $9,000, Arnautovic should go overlooked by many despite the fact that he is in one of the best goal-scoring runs of his career.
While Swansea have been tough at home recently and this will be a difficult test for West Ham, Arnautovic is capable of producing against anyone. After a slow start to the season, Arnautovic caught fire in December, and he has seven goals and three assists in his 10 Premier League starts since then. During that span, he produced more than 20 FanDuel points eight times, including two matches with at least 30 FanDuel points (outings of 49.5 and 53.25 FanDuel points). Since returning from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss a couple weeks in late January, Arnautovic hasn't missed a beat, and he is certainly capable of a ceiling performance against Swansea this weekend.
Swansea City's incredible run under their new manager finally came to an end last weekend when they were dismantled 4-1 by Brighton. While they have been much better at home and should provide a stiff test for West Ham, Swansea's fairytale run of invincible form appears to be coming to an end. While it hasn't always showed in the final result due to their defensive issues, West Ham have been excellent in front of goal on the road recently. They have 13 goals in their last six away matches, the second-most in the Premier League during that span. Even if Swansea find success of their own, Arnautovic should have plenty of chances to score this weekend.
Nathan Redmond, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $7,000
After a decent start to the season that saw Redmond produce double-digit FanDuel points in 8 of his first 11 matches, his playing time became sporadic, and he failed to make a single start for Southampton in January. However, in his return to the starting XI against Burnley last weekend, he produced a performance worthy of man-of-the-match honors, which should be enough to retain his starting spot this weekend. Southampton have the fourth-highest implied total on the slate, and Redmond has the same odds to score as his more popular teammate, James Ward-Prowse.
In his starts against non-elite opposition this season, Redmond has averaged 2.5 shots and 2.6 chances created per match, and he also was given a share of corner responsibilities last weekend. If he starts, he should be firmly involved in the Southampton attack, and he may come at low ownership due to his lack of recent playing time.
Stoke City's away form has been atrocious this season. They have allowed 33 goals in 14 away matches, the most in the Premier League, and they have allowed 13 goals in their last 6 away matches, the second-most in the Premier League over that span. Excluding their recent home loss to Liverpool, Southampton have scored in their previous seven home matches, and they average 13.4 shots per match at home, the eighth-most in the Premier League. They also average the seventh-most possession at home (55.2%, tied with Manchester United). If he's given the start, Redmond has a good chance to build on his excellent performance from last weekend.
Troy Deeney, Watford
FanDuel Salary $7,500
While it certainly wasn't easy on the eyes, Watford got the three points it wanted out of the match with Everton last weekend. They have now won three matches in a row, and the Hornets get to face West Bromwich Albion at home this weekend. As one of the only Watford attackers consistently playing 90 minutes each match, Deeney is the safest way to get exposure to the Hornets for this one.
Deeney has now scored two goals in his last three matches, including the late winner against Everton last weekend. That brings his goal total on the season to four, all of which have been scored at home. Deeney has also seen an increase in his chances created of late, averaging two per match over his last six matches.
Watford have been on a decent run of home form, netting 11 goals scored in their past six matches, tied for the fifth-most in the Premier League in that span. They have been middle of the table in terms of home performance this season, with the 10th-most shots per game, 8th-most goals, and 8th-highest possession rate. They should improve on all of those stats this weekend against a West Brom side that has just one win in 14 road matches this campaign. West Brom have conceded an average of two goals per match over their last six road matches, and the Baggies maintain only 42.7% possession, tied for the second-lowest in the Premier League. Watford should be able to extend their winning streak to four this weekend, and they have the potential to do so in dominating fashion.