FanDuel Premier League Matches to Target in Matchweek 29
Some eyes may shift to North America this week with Major League Soccer kicking off its season, but FanDuel keeps our focus on the Premier League. The main weekend slate will feature six of Saturday's seven games.
|Saturday, March 3rd|
|Stoke at Southampton|
|West Ham at Swansea|
|Huddersfield at Tottenham|
|Bournemouth at Leicester|
|West Brom at Watford|
|Newcastle at Liverpool|
It should be no surprise that Tottenham and Liverpool are the biggest favorites on the slate, especially with both teams playing at home. They are each two-goal favorites, although the over/under for Liverpool is a half-goal higher.
The action should be lopsided in favor of the top four teams, so leverage can be found in the following fixtures.
Watford vs. West Brom
These two teams played a thriller in September, with Watford scoring the tying goal deep into stoppage time to escape the Hawthorns with a point. That was the second time in the last three league games the two teams totaled four goals.
Both average at least a goal a game in this fixture across the last six matches in all competitions. West Brom have also conceded at least two goals in their last four Premier League games. Watford have allowed 47 goals, third-most this season.
West Brom will need to take advantage of the porous defense, as they have to be in desperation mode. They have lost their last four matches and are now seven points from safety. Alan Pardew has no option but to go attacking like he did last week. Unfortunately, his options are limited with Daniel Sturridge likely out.
That means Jay Rodriguez and Salomon Rondon must carry the load up front. Jake Livermore returned last weekend and could provide some spark. None of these players cost over $8,000 and Livermore is just $6,000.
Watford comes in with better form having won two of their last three games. However, they are only six points above the drop zone despite sitting in the middle of the table. They must take advantage of the home field and match West Brom's desperation.
Watford have averaged close to 12 shots per game while West Brom allows over 13, so Watford should have plenty of opportunities. They should continue using the 4-4-2 formation that helped them win last week's match. Troy Deeney and Stefano Okaka paired in attack with Gerard Deulofeu being forced off with an injury, and Andre Carrillo would be in line to take his place.
The Watford players are also very affordable with Okaka coming in at $6,000. These costs will allow room to take high-priced attackers from Liverpool and Tottenham.
Leicester vs. Bournemouth
There is not a history of goals in this matchup and the game tends to end in a draw, but both teams are coming off a draw and one of their worst defeats of the season. They need to rebound to take some momentum toward the end of the year. Also, neither is assured safety yet, so three points can bring peace of mind.
Both teams have scored over 30 goals but allowed over 40. They are still juggling their defense based on injuries or recent form. Based on those parameters, this game could result in chaos and disorganization, which can be a great recipe for goals.
The top Leicester players are not as affordable as those from the previous game with Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez among the most expensive players on the slate. Mahrez returned to his normal spot on the left side, as he now works to impress other teams for a possible summer move.
Vardy scored Leicester's lone goal in this match at the King Power Stadium last season. These two are among the most likely to score for Leicester, but check the team news to see if Shinji Okazaki and Fousseni Diabate are included in the starting lineup.
Callum Wilson is the most likely Bournemouth player to score, but Dan Gosling's form should not be ignored. He is coming off his best game of the season, which capped a successful four-game streak of starts. Gosling should feature once again for the Cherries. He now averages 13 FanDuel points per game at a $7,000 price tag.
Bournemouth defenders are constantly busy, as one must be against Vardy's speed. Defenders Nathan Ake, Simon Francis, and Steve Cook lead the team in points per game. However, Cook and Francis are among the league leaders in errors leading to a goal. In most cases, those errors are not penalized in FanDuel, allowing the back line to still have good value.
Buying into the potential chaos and back-and-forth nature of this match could be highly beneficial on Saturday.
If you are playing the FanDuel slate that runs Thursday through Saturday, consider targeting the Thursday fixture. Manchester City just scored three goals against Arsenal, but they lost one of their best defensive midfielders, and games in the Premier League have less value for the league leaders. Arsenal have a better chance to score in this rematch and there have been plenty goals scored in the recent league fixtures between these teams.
Douglas Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Douglas Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username aquemini03. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.