3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 25
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Wednesday slate, which starts at 2:45 p.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Wednesday, January 31st|
|Leicester City at Everton|
|Bournemouth at Chelsea
|Brighton & Hove Albion at Southampton|
|Burnley at Newcastle|
|Watford at Stoke City|
|West Bromwich Albion at Manchester City|
|Manchester United at Tottenham|
Matchweek 25 is highlighted by Tottenham hosting Manchester United. The only other elite sides on the slate are Manchester City, who are 2.0-goal home favorites over West Brom, and Chelsea, who are 1.5-goal home favorites over Bournemouth. With Chelsea's recent offensive struggles and the difficult challenge that awaits both Manchester United and Tottenham, this slate sets up well for Manchester City.
Coming off his massive 76.25-FanDuel-point hat trick in Matchweek 24, Sergio Aguero should be the highest-owned player on the slate. Even at a price of $13,000, as the spearhead of the most potent attack in the Premier League, he will carry massive ownership. What remains to be seen is who will step up and replace Leroy Sane, who suffered an ankle injury in Manchester City's FA Cup victory last weekend. The most likely replacement is winger Bernardo Silva, who, at a price of only $7,500, would carry ownership levels that rival Aguero's if he is in the starting XI.
As has been the case on all Manchester City slates this season, a full fade is ill-advised. As the largest favorites on the slate by a wide margin, it is better to consider a fade on only Aguero and look to gain exposure to City through lower-owned Citizens. While Aguero does have the highest odds to score on the slate, he has been hit or miss recently, with FanDuel point totals of 54, 12.25, 4.25, 31.75, 18, and 76.25 over his last six matches. At his inflated price and expected high ownership, it may be better to pivot to a lesser-owned striker and redistribute the saved salary to include his teammates.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 25.
David Silva, Manchester City
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
As with any Manchester City player, Silva will never fly truly under the radar. However, he should carry the lowest ownership of any City non-defender outside of Fernandinho this weekend. With Aguero likely to be popular, most lineups will look to save salary by opting for whoever Leroy Sane's replacement is, which could mean Silva will be overlooked. While he won't come at a discount, Silva also benefits from Sane's absence, as he could see an uptick in corners taken. Kevin De Bruyne, Silva, and Sane handle the bulk of City's dead-ball opportunities, and removing one from the equation helps the other two.
While he hasn't flashed it recently, Silva's upside has been on display numerous times this season. He's certainly not a prolific goal scorer, but with Manchester City's dominating style of play, he consistently has the ball at his feet in the final third. After returning from his absence due to personal matters, Silva has picked up right where he left off in terms of his involvement in the City attack, but he has yet to find the net.
His floor is clearly in tact after producing 17.75 and 25.0 FanDuel points in his last two starts without a goal or an assist. If he can recapture the goal-scoring form that saw him net four goals in three matches in December, he could be the highest-scoring Manchester City player this weekend at low ownership compared to his teammates.
West Brom have been surprisingly strong defensively on the road this season, allowing only 16 goals in 12 matches, the seventh-fewest in the Premier League. Those matches include holding Tottenham, Arsenal, and Liverpool to a combined three goals. However, Manchester City are on an entirely different level, and even with the loss of Sane, which moved the spread from 2.5 goals to 2.0 goals, they should be able to handle the Baggies at home.
Anthony Martial, Manchester United
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Lost in the arrival of Alexis Sanchez is the impressive form that Martial has been in. With three goals in his last three Premier League matches, he has averaged 36.4 FanDuel points per match in that span. Usually, a player in that kind of form on Manchester United with a salary of only $9,000 would carry high ownership. However, Sanchez's arrival and the matchup against Tottenham are likely to lower the ownership on Martial significantly.
It remains to be seen how Sanchez's arrival will impact Martials playing time, and it's certainly possible he won't start, but after not featuring at all in the Red Devils' FA cup match last Friday, Martial should be ready to go on Wednesday. While the match up is difficult, on his current form Martial is capable of scoring on anyone. This season, Tottenham have been a far cry from the defensive stalwarts they were last season, and Spurs have conceded 10 goals in five matches against the EPL's elite sides.
Manchester United have been in excellent form away from Old Trafford recently, with 14 goals scored in their past six matches, including three against Arsenal. They have an implied goal total of 1.21, which is the second-highest of the underdogs on the slate. While clashes between elite sides tend to limit fantasy upside, that isn't always the case as Liverpool and Manchester City showed with their 4-3 result earlier this month.
While that is less likely to happen due to the tactical preferences of these two sides, the talent on the field can certainly produce goals. In the best form of his United tenure, Martial could be as low as 5% owned this weekend, and he has the ability to produce a tournament-winning performance.
Johann Berg Gudmundsson, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $7,000
On the lower end of the salary scale, ownership should be highest on Sane's replacement -- whoever it ends up bring -- and potentially Ross Barkley. While Barkley is unproven at Chelsea, he would certainly be in consideration if he received a start in an attacking role against Bournemouth, and that could happen thanks to Willian's injury. Gudmundsson is a pivot off of both of these options.
While Burnley are better known for their defensive resilience under Sean Dyche, Gudmundsson's monopoly of set pieces since Robbie Brady's injury allows him to produce FanDuel points despite the Clarets' offensive struggles. He has reached double-digit points in 15 of his last 17 starts, and he produced at least 20 points in seven of those matches. At only $7,000, his floor is much higher than the other options in his price range, and his ownership should be pretty low, as well.
With Newcastle winless at home in their last six matches and Burnley winless on the road in their last five matches, form is an issue for both sides coming into this clash. While it could be ugly, an even match should provide Gudmundsson with enough set-piece opportunities to pay off his salary. Due to his high floor, there is a decent chance he could outscore both Sane's replacement and Barkley without scoring a goal. If he manages to score a goal, he will provide a significant advantage over lineups that opted for one of the more popular value players on elite sides.