3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches.
|Saturday, December 9th|
|Watford at Burnley|
|Bournemouth at Crystal Palace
|Brighton & Hove Albion at Huddersfield Town|
|West Bromwich Albion at Swansea City|
|Stoke City at Tottenham|
|Leicester City at Newcastle|
Matchweek 16 is a wide open slate highlighted by Tottenham hosting Stoke City. Outside of Tottenham, who are the largest favorite on the slate with a spread of 1.5 goals, the only other favored team is Crystal Palace, who are 0.5-goal favorites at home against Bournemouth. The remaining four matches are all pick 'ems.
This is the first slate in a while to feature only one elite side. In a situation like this, ownership is going to be sky high on Tottenham, but fading them is an incredibly risky proposition. Their implied goal total of 2.28 goals is significantly more than the slate's second-highest implied total (1.35). With such a large gap in expected production, it may be better to try to find the lesser owned players on Tottenham, rather than fading them all together.
With the slate so highly contested outside of Tottenham, ownership is going to be spread over the numerous remaining options. The range of outcomes for these matches is wide, which makes for a very unpredictable slate. On a slate like this, low ownership is paramount, as the projected outcomes for most players are similar.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 16.
Ben Davies, Tottenham
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Tottenham’s defenders should carry lower ownership than their forwards or midfielders. While they will have higher ownership than most players on the slate as a whole, they should serve as contrarian options on their own team.
Wing-backs on large favorites, such as Ashley Young, Kevin Trippier, and Serge Aurier have had success on recent slates, and the public will be aware of those names. On the opposite side of the field from Trippier and Aurier is Ben Davies, who has be excellent in his appearances this season. He is averaging 22.11 FanDuel points per match, and he has exceeded 35 FanDuel points three times this year -- all in matches in which Tottenham were heavy favorites.
Davies offers great upside for a defender and can be paired with the likes of Harry Kane, Dele Alli, and Christian Eriksen to gain slightly differentiated exposure to the largest favorite on the slate.
As a general note on Tottenham, after featuring in the Champions League on Wednesday, it’s possible that some lesser utilized players will be given a start this weekend. Pay close attention to the starting lineups when they are released.
Aaron Mooy, Huddersfield Town
FanDuel Salary: $8,500
Aaron Mooy has been remarkably consistent this season, scoring double-digit FanDuel points in 13 of his 15 appearances. However, despite his remarkable run to start the season, he hasn’t scored more than 30 FanDuel points since October. Due to this, his ownership should be low in a home matchup against Brighton.
Huddersfield Town appear to be on a bad run of form with four consecutive losses. However, three of those four matches were on the road. At home, they have been a much better side. At home, they beat Manchester United and lost by one goal to Manchester City, an excellent result in light of City’s recent performances.
On the other side of the pitch, Brighton have been incredibly resilient on the road this season, allowing only seven goals, the third-fewest in the Premier League. A highly-contested match lends itself to Mooy’s skillset as he accumulates the majority of his points from his defense actions. This match offers him the ability to accumulate points on both ends -- all at low ownership.
Jamie Vardy, Leicester City
FanDuel Salary: $9,500
After failing to score against Burnley last weekend and posting a miserable 5.75 FanDuel points, Jamie Vardy shouldn't see a ton of ownership this weekend despite having the third-best odds to score of any non-Tottenham player on the slate. His ownership should also be lower due to his price, which makes it difficult to include him in lineups with multiple expensive Tottenham players. As a boom-or-bust option, Vardy should be avoided in cash games, but his upside -- combined with the volatility of the slate -- makes him an intriguing play in large-field tourneys.
While Vardy failed to score last week, Leicester City did earn three points, and the Foxes have now won two matches in a row for only the second time this season. Leicester City have been solid in the final third on the road this season, scoring nine goals in seven matches, including five goals in their last three matches. Leicester playing better as a whole should lead to an increase in chances in the final third for Vardy.
After a hot start to the season, Newcastle have hit rock bottom. They have five losses and one draw in their last six matches, and they have allowed 14 goals in that span, the third-most in the Premier League. They are allowing 13.4 shots per game to opponents at home this season, and Newcastle only maintains 44.2% of the possession. These two sides appear to be moving in opposite directions as they head into their match this weekend. Vardy has the ability to exploit this at potential low ownership.