3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 15
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, December 2nd|
|Tottenham at Watford|
|Swansea City at Stoke City
|Liverpool at Brighton & Hove Albion|
|Huddersfield Town at Everton|
|Crystal Palace at West Bromwich Albion|
|Burnley at Leicester City|
|Manchester United at Arsenal|
Matchweek 15 is highlighted by Manchester United visiting Arsenal. As was the case when Chelsea visited Liverpool in Matchweek 12, this will limit the fantasy upside of both team’s players. The two remaining elite sides on the slate, Liverpool and Tottenham, are both road favorites. Liverpool travel to Brighton and are tied for the largest favorites on the slate with a spread of 1.0 goal. Tottenham visit Watford and are only 0.5-goal favorites.
This seven-game slate should be tightly contested. With 1.0 goal being the largest spread, all of these matches are projected to be competitive. After their impressive display on Tuesday, Everton are actually tied with Liverpool as the largest favorites with a spread of 1.0 goal at home against Huddersfield Town. Due to their low price and explosive midweek display, they are likely to be the highest-owned team on the slate.
While Everton did look excellent on Tuesday, West Ham are far from difficult opponents, and a side currently sitting at 13th on the Premier League table commanding high ownership is a dangerous proposition for large-field tournaments. That said, Everton have been excellent at home and Huddersfield have struggled on the road. The decision to include or fade Everton’s players is where lineup construction starts for this weekend.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 15.
Jamie Vardy, Leicester City
FanDuel Salary: $9,500
From an ownership perspective, Vardy is in an interesting spot. Had Everton’s explosive performance on Wednesday never happened, he would be in line for high ownership after his incredible chip goal over Hugo Lloris Tuesday. However, with Everton likely to be the non-elite side of choice for many and Rooney priced at $1,500 less than Vardy, he could go underowned.
Vardy is as goal dependent as they come -- of his 223.25 FanDuel points this season, 140 (62.7%) have come from goals. Outside of his goals scored, he only produces an average of 5.9 FanDuel points per match. Thankfully, he has the second-best odds to score this weekend, behind only Harry Kane.
Burnley have had an excellent start to the season, mainly due to their defensive efforts. They are nearly impossible to break down at home, allowing only three goals in seven matches. They have been slightly more vulnerable on the road, though, allowing eight goals in seven matches. Vardy has proven he has the ability to score on any opponent, and as a home favorite this weekend, Leicester City should be able to provide him with numerous opportunities.
Mame Biram Diouf, Stoke City
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Outside of the elite sides, Stoke City have the third-highest implied goal total at 1.53 goals. They are playing at home, and are 0.5-goal favorites over Swansea City. Stoke have been hit or miss at home this season -- they've produced some impressive results, like a 2-2 draw against Manchester United, and some forgettable ones, like a 2-1 loss to Bournemouth. However, they are averaging over a goal scored per match at Bet365 Stadium.
Swansea’s away form is bizarre. Despite only securing five points in seven away matches, they have managed to only concede six goals, third fewest in the Premier League this season. That impressive stat is mainly due to their opponents' poor conversion rates, as Swansea are allowing a massive 19.3 shots per game on the road.
Diouf has been remarkably consistent this year and has scored over 10 FanDuel points in 12 of his 13 appearances. He has also shown flashes of upside, with performances of 20.25, 26.25, 34.00, and 36.00 FanDuel points. If Stoke City are afforded 19 shots, Diouf could show his upside at low ownership.
Wilfried Zaha, Crystal Palace
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Regardless of matchup, Zaha’s talent keeps him in play for large-field tournaments every single weekend. In the seven matches since he returned to full fitness, he has only failed to score over 10 FanDuel points twice and has three performances of at least 25 FanDuel points.
His return from injury has also caused a resurgence for Crystal Palace, who didn’t manage to secure a single point while Zaha was sidelined. They opened the season with seven straight losses before finally getting their first points in a win over Chelsea, when Zaha returned. Since then, they have been more competitive, and while far from a great side, they finally appear to be capable of positive performances.
Despite being a road underdog this weekend, a positive performance is certainly possible against West Brom, who have conceded 12 goals at home this season, tied for third most in the Premier League.
Zack Bussiere is not a FanDuel employee. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.