FanDuel Premier League Matches to Target in Matchweek 14
The fixture list in the Premier League gives an indication that the holidays are here as teams have very little time to rest since Matchweek 13. Games for Matchweek 14 begin on Tuesday, but the bigger slate takes place on Wednesday. That is where the FanDuel focus will be for the midweek action.
|Wednesday, November 29th|
|Burnley at Bournemouth|
|Huddersfield at Arsenal|
|Swansea City at Chelsea|
|Liverpool at Stoke City|
|Southampton at Manchester City|
|West Ham at Everton|
The Wednesday slate has very high totals, with only two matches below a 3.0-goal over/under. Three matches have clear favorites (Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City) while Liverpool and Bournemouth are slight favorites. However, there is intrigue with all of the games on the slate.
Let's get to it.
Stoke vs. Liverpool
Liverpool have the edge in the series, but Stoke have been able to score in their last three Premier League matches against Liverpool, and the Potters are at home. Stoke have also managed to score at least once in each of their last seven Premier League matches, so this should not be a one-sided affair.
Possession could be one sided as it seems likely that Liverpool will see most of the ball. The three-man back line of Stoke will be busy and should rack up points trying to stop Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino, Philippe Coutinho, and Sadio Mane. Those four players are the highest-priced guys in this match for good reason. However, the Stoke back line provides value, especially Ryan Shawcross and Kevin Wimmer.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Running xG and xG map #xgplot pic.twitter.com/rxfHMvPb5j
— Scott Willis (@oh_that_crab) November 26, 2017
Shawcross has averaged more than 20 FanDuel points the last two games and should be able to reach that mark again. Liverpool's action zone is the middle of the park, which is where Shawcross will be stationed. While they often initially attack down the right side through Mane, many of Liverpool's best chances come directly in front of goal. Shawcross, along with Darren Fletcher and Joe Allen, will need to be aware of the attackers right in front of the Stoke goal.
Despite the recent effort shown by Shawcross, it is simply too hard to ignore Salah's stats. He has 16 goals in all competitions this season. He averages 29.8 FanDuel points a week in EPL play, with his 33-point effort this past weekend his "worst" output in the past three weeks.
While it is understandable that most of the attention goes to Liverpool's attackers, they are still not as stout of a defensive side as they need to be to contend for the league title. They have allowed 18 goals, the most of any of the top-seven teams. Perhaps that is why two of the top three final score predictions include a Stoke goal.
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting continues to show his worth for Stoke, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per match, but Xherdan Shaqiri showed again this past weekend that he does not need much space to find a goal.
Shaqiri is tied with Choupo-Moting and two others for the team lead in goals, and he now has five assists to lead Stoke City. Choupo-Moting and Shaqiri are both priced at $7,500.
Stoke have scored the most goals of the bottom eight teams, so they should have confidence in their attack. This is also Liverpool's third game in eight days, so fatigue could be a factor. There is no reason to overlook Stoke in this match, and it should be an entertaining fixture.
Chelsea vs. Swansea
The plan in targeting this fixture is pretty clear. Take on the high-priced Chelsea offensive players and offset their cost with defensive value plays from Swansea who will rack up defensive-action points.
Chelsea have lost only 1 of 12 all-time Premier League meetings against Swansea. Chelsea striker Alvaro Morata has scored one more goal this season than Swansea have as a team. Swansea's top goal scorer, Tammy Abraham, is ineligible to play against his parent team as part of his loan deal. Everything on paper points to a Chelsea win.
Morata, despite being priced at $11,000, is a good place to start. He is averaging 24.1 FanDuel points per match and only played 25 minutes in Chelsea's Champions League match last week. He should not be a victim of fatigue despite the heavy schedule. He should also be immune to any squad rotation that Antonio Conte is wrestling with during the hectic stretch.
Understanding between Fabregas-Morata-Hazard is unreal. pic.twitter.com/Wzzre0AvQT
— Sirajuddeen Srj (@sirru_chelsea) November 18, 2017
Due in part to Conte favoring the back three, six Chelsea players are averaging at least 20 points per game. The formation has allowed Cesc Fabregas to have more time to find open passing lanes, and his lack of pace is not a liability. It has also solidified the defense and allowed Marcos Alonso and Cesar Azpilicueta to contribute both offensively and defensively.
Someone will be tasked with stopping the Chelsea attack, and there is value to be had among the Swansea defense. Sadly, Federico Fernandez will miss the match due to the death of his father. Mike van der Hoorn will likely take his place at a cost of $4,500. He had eight clearances and three interceptions last week.
Roque Mesa was an unexpected starter in this past weekend's goalless draw with Bournemouth and could get the call again to help protect the Swansea back line. He record six defensive actions and also drew a foul against the Cherries. He is just $4,000. No Swansea midfielder is priced above $6,000. Regardless of who gets the call in deep midfield, they will have to protect their own net for most of the game, with statistics showing that Chelsea will likely own more of the possession.
There have been less than 2.5 goals scored in 10 of Swansea's last 11 away games. They will have to weather the storm of Chelsea's attacking front and outside backs, but they have been here before and held their own defensively. They may struggle to generate their own offense, which further enhances the strategy outlined above.
Douglas Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Douglas Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username aquemini03. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.