3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 11
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 11:00 a.m. EST and features five matches.
|Saturday, November 4th|
|Brighton & Hove Albion at Swansea City|
|Bournemouth at Newcastle United
|Burnley at Southampton|
|West Bromwich Albion at Huddersfield Town|
|Liverpool at West Ham United|
After last week's run of slates with multiple elite sides in action and a wealth of high-priced attacking options available, Matchweek 11 presents a drastically different outlook. It projects to be a low scoring, tightly contested slate. West Brom at Huddersfield Town, Burnley at Southampton, and Brighton at Swansea City all have a measly over / under of 2.0 goals. With the exception of Burnley, every team on the slate has an implied goal total of at least 1.0 goal, but none have an implied total above 2.0 goals.
While it may be tempting to stack Liverpool for the perceived safety of an elite side, they will come with massive ownership and have an implied goal total that is much lower than elite sides have had in previous slates. It may be better to select a single stud from Liverpool, such as Mohamed Salah, and look elsewhere for lower-owned players with similar upside.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 11.
Manolo Gabbiadini, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Gabbiadini has 3 goals in seven starts this season, and after not reaching the full 90 minutes in the first seven matchweeks, he has played three complete matches in a row. In those matches he produced 39.5, 11.75, and 1.25 FanDuel points.
Southampton have the second largest implied goal total on the slate at 1.63 goals. All 3 of Gabbiadini’s goals this season have been scored in the confines of St. Mary’s Stadium, and he has the seventh-best odds to score of anyone on the slate.
Coming off their miserable road record last season, Burnley have been somewhat stingy on the road this season. They have allowed 7 goals in five matches, but those matches include contests against Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham. That said, they have the lowest implied goal total on the slate at .77 goals and only average 44.2% possession, compared to Southampton’s 56.9% possession.
Nathan Redmond, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $7,000
If he gets the start this weekend after a two-match spell as a sub, Redmond makes for an excellent correlation play with Gabbiadini. While he has yet to score this year, Redmond has been heavily involved in the final third when Southampton are at home. In six matches at St. Mary’s this season he has averaged 17.37 FanDuel points per match. In those six matches he has taken 16 shots and created 16 chances.
Most of Redmond’s production has come when he is featured as the left attacking mid in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Redmond thrives when he is able to drift wide and run at the defense. Ideally, as large home favorites, Southampton will give him the opportunity to do just that.
Matt Ritchie, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary $8,500
As the second-largest home favorite on the slate -- and with the third-highest implied goal total of 1.52 goals -- Newcastle are a good bet for offensive production this weekend. After an incredible start to the season that saw Ritchie produce double-digit FanDuel points in his first eight matches, he has cooled off after suffering a thigh injury on international break with Scotland. With only 4.75 and 3.5 FanDuel points in his last two matches, Ritchie may go under-owned as the public’s confidence in him falters.
Outside of Liverpool, Newcastle’s forwards have the best odds to score on the slate, and Ritchie himself has the fourth-best odds to score of any FanDuel eligible midfielder. Bournemouth’s awful road form lends itself to those odds, as they have conceded 8 goals in five matches and only produced 3 points.