3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 33
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches.
|Saturday, April 15th|
|Burnley at Everton|
|Hull City at Stoke City|
|Leicester City at Crystal Palace|
|West Ham United at Sunderland|
|Swansea City at Watford|
|Manchester City at Southampton|
The main slate for Matchweek 33 only has one top-six side on it, with Manchester City – favored by half a goal -- on the road against Southampton in the late match. Everton -- currently seventh on the table – are favored by a goal at home against Burnley, making them the largest favorite on the slate. Outside of that, the slate is composed of numerous teams from the bottom half of the table.
Crystal Palace and Stoke City are both half-goal favorites at home against Leicester City and Hull City, respectively. West Ham are the only road favorite on the slate, favored by half a goal against Sunderland. Rounding out the slate is a pick 'em match between Watford and Swansea City, with Watford the slightest of favorites at home.
From an ownership perspective, this slate screams Everton. As the largest home favorite on the slate and the only top table side playing at home, Everton are the surest bet. Their incredible home form and Burnley’s miserable away record only further the gap in this match. This will surely lead to high ownership on Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley, and higher ownership should trickle down on Idrissa Gueye, as well.
Outside of Everton, Manchester City’s players should be the highest owned, as their match against Southampton has the highest over under of the slate at 3. Also at a price of only $7,400, Jermain Defoe playing at home may be a popular value play, as he has the third-best goal-scoring odds.
Given Everton’s matchup, I wouldn’t recommend fading their offensive options completely. While Lukaku can be goal dependent, and has produced 5.5 and 3.75 FanDuel points in two of his last three matches and has been the best striker in the Premier League at home recently, so its hard to bet against him. Instead, we will look for ways to differentiate our lineups for large-field tournaments while including our Everton options.
Leighton Baines, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $5,900
Whenever I identify a striker in a great position to play despite his projected high ownership, I always look for an attacking fullback on his team to differentiate my lineup. Lukaku and Leighton Baines fit that profile perfectly. While he isn’t responsible for as many free-kick responsibilities for Everton as he was in the past, Baines still gets forward and will have the opportunity to provide Lukaku with an assist. Using Baines with Lukaku differentiates you from the majority of the field, who will be pairing him with Ross Barkley. You could also consider using all thee, the matchup is certainly good enough to justify it.
Speaking of the matchup, it’s pristine. Everton have the fourth-most home goals scored this season (38), only one behind both Tottenham and Chelsea. Recently, they have been untouchable at home, winning their last six in a row and scoring a whopping 23 goals over that span. Conversely, Burnley continue to be terrible on the road, with only four points gained from 16 away fixtures. They have done better defensively recently, with two shutouts in a row, but those came against Middlesbrough and Sunderland. The hottest home side in the league should have little trouble breaking them down.
Baines himself has been relatively consistent while flashing the upside we are looking for. He has scored 12-plus FanDuel points in his last four matches and has scored over 20 FanDuel points six times, with two of those being 40-plus point efforts. Both of those efforts involved goals and they came at home. While Baines is a great player regardless of where a match is being played, his offensive involvement and upside are boosted when in the comforts of Goodison Park.
Michael Keane, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $5,900
Defender is a tricky position on FanDuel. Ownership tends to fall on the main center back playing against the largest favorite. In this case, that man is Burnley defender Ben Mee, who has been a rock this season and one of the most consistent defenders on FanDuel. He is a great choice for cash games this weekend, but his counterpart, Michael Keane, is in an equally good position with the amount of pressure Burnley is expected to face. He is a capable defender in his own right and has numerous performances of 30-plus FanDuel points this season.
In this situation, the outlook for Keane and Mee appears to be very similar, and taking the lower-owned one is the correct decision for large-field tournaments. Burnley’s fullbacks – Matthew Lowton and Stephen Ward – should also be busy on Saturday and an argument could be made that they will be even lower owned than Keane. However, Everton tend to funnel their attack through Lukaku in the middle, which should lead to more defensive opportunities for Keane.
Andros Townsend, Crystal Palace
FanDuel Salary: $6,100
Townsend is battling a small heel injury and while he believes he’ll be fine by Saturday, definitely watch for any updates leading up to the match. Assuming he plays, Townsend is in a great spot at home against Leicester City. Despite being at home and favored by half a goal, there should still be a decent amount of people going with their Leicester City options due to recent form.
However, coming off a grueling Champions League tie on Tuesday, I expect Leicester to be on the back foot in this one.
Even amongst his teammates, Townsend should be low owned as people tend to favor Wilfried Zaha, Yohan Cabaye and Christian Benteke when it comes to Crystal Palace options. With that expected lower ownership, I like Townsend as a play for large-field tournaments. He’s recently been splitting corners with Cabaye and has been producing FanDuel points consistently, scoring 10-plus FanDuel points in his last seven matches. That includes two performances of 30-plus points and one of 40-plus.
He should be able to continue his hot streak this weekend, as Leicester have lost four of their last six road fixtures, giving up an average of two goals per match during that span. Palace have been far from an offensive machine at home, but have started to turn things around recently. They have won their last three home fixtures by a combined score of 5-0, highlighted by their recent 3-0 drubbing of Arsenal. Townsend has been a key part of those home results, and should have plenty of opportunities this weekend.
If Townsend doesn’t play, look for another Crystal Palace player to take advantage of this matchup, or simply going with Yohan Cabaye, who would inherit full corner taking responsibilities in Townsend’s absence.
As always, make sure to check lineups as they come out on Saturday morning and adjust accordingly.