3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 32
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches.
|Saturday, April 8th|
|Burnley at Middlesbrough|
|Hull City at Manchester City
|Liverpool at Stoke City|
|Southampton at West Bromwich Albion|
|Swansea City at West Ham United|
|Chelsea at Bournemouth|
Matchweek 32 is highlighted by two heavy favorites, with the four other matches forecasted to be very close. Manchester City are favored by two goals at home against Hull City, and Chelsea are one-goal favorites on the road against Bournemouth. The only other elite side on the slate - Liverpool – are only half-goal favorites on the road against Stoke. West Ham are also half-goal favorites at home against Swansea City, and Middlesbrough and Southampton are both slight favorites in their pick 'em matches.
With a favorite as heavy as Manchester City, their stars should attract heavy ownership, and as two-goal favorites in a match with an over/under of three-and-a-half, fading them would be very difficult. Chelsea and Liverpool are both road favorites and are much better targets for finding high-owned players for pivots.
It is important to keep in mind that this is the third match for many of these teams in less than 8 days, and fatigue is certainly going to be a factor. Squad rotation is going to be necessary, and being attentive when lineups come out on Saturday morning will be crucial. Also, as a point of clarification, after including the Sunday matches on their main slate last weekend, FanDuel has removed them for this weekend. However, they did keep the late swap feature, so you will be able to utilize it for the one afternoon match – Chelsea at Bournemouth.
Here are three players to consider for large field tournaments this weekend.
Andy Carroll, West Ham United
FanDuel Salary: $9,300
Anytime a slate has multiple elite sides on it, forwards on middle-tier teams can wind up underowned. Ownership will be heavy on Sergio Aguero, Diego Costa, and Roberto Firmino, causing Caroll to go overlooked. His price, which is admittedly steep, should also lead to lower ownership, as players will look for value at forward after slotting in one of the expensive ones we just touched on.
Carroll has the seventh-best odds to score this weekend, behind only some options from the elite clubs. He actually has better odds to score than Eden Hazard and the previously mentioned Roberto Firmino. After having a quiet first half of the year, Carroll has vastly improved with five of his seven goals coming since the start of the new year. West Ham’s home form hasn’t been great --one win in their last six -- but three of those matches were against Manchester United, Manchester City, and Chelsea.
In their other three matches against Crystal Palace, West Brom, and the reborn Leicester City, they scored seven goals, averaging over two per match. Swansea City are certainly more like the second group of teams, as they have only two away wins in their last six matches and none in their last four. While that stretch also includes some elite sides, they have allowed two goals each to Hull City and Bournemouth in their last two away fixtures. The opportunities should certainly be there for Carroll and West Ham this weekend.
Marko Arnautovic, Stoke City
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
It’s no secret that Liverpool has struggled defensively on the road this season (23 goals allowed over 15 matches), and against lesser opposition. Playing against Stoke on the road combines both of those negative trends. While Liverpool are slightly favored and should dominate possession, it is certainly possible for them to concede multiple goals. Liverpool have only one win in their last six away matches and have allowed a goal in five of them, with multiple goals being conceded to Hull City, Sunderland and Leicester City.
It’s also no secret that Stoke aren’t that great of side. Arnautovic is thankfully a creator, and doesn’t always rely on his teammates to create chances. In fact, since Arnautvoic scored a brace against Middlesbrough at the start of March, Stoke have only managed one goal. If Liverpool are expected to surrender chances, expect Arnautovic to be the one most likely to capitalize on them.
While he hasn’t scored since that brace in March, Arnautovic has been heavily involved. In the three games since, he has averaged just under three shots and exactly two chances created a match. Goals are difficult to predict, but all the factors appear to be there for Arnautvoic this weekend. Since he's going against Liverpool, he shouldn't have a high ownership number.
Cristhian Stuani, Middlesbrough
FanDuel Salary: $6,400
Coming off a match in which he received his first minutes for Middlesbrough since early March, Stuani may be in line for a start this weekend. While he hasn’t played much recently, there aren’t many enticing options on Middlesbrough to take advantage of their dream matchup against Burnley at home.
This is mainly a matchup play, and while Burnley did recently hold Sunderland to a 0-0 draw and “only” lost 2-1 against Liverpool, they have still only taken 3 total points on the road this season, with 3 draws and 12 defeats. Over those 15 matches, they conceded 30 goals, tied for fourth worst in the Premier League.
Stuani was a more prominent figure for Middlesbrough at the start of the season, starting six of the first seven matches and scoring three goals during that stretch. Despite having only scored one goal since, Stuani has the second-most goals this season for Middlesbrough, behind only Alvaro Negredo. He will almost certainly be incredibly low owned, and has the same odds to score as Jesus Navas does with his dream matchup against Hull City.
It's a bit of a stretch, but at home against Burnley, he could provide a spark like he did earlier in the season for Middlesbrough.
As always, make sure to check lineups as they come out on Saturday morning and adjust accordingly.