FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 28
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches.
|Saturday, March 11th|
|Swansea City at Hull City|
|West Bromwich Albion at Everton
|West Ham United at AFC Bournemouth|
With the fixture schedule forcing multiple matches to be postponed, we are left with a three-game main slate for this weekend. All matches on the slate have an over/under of 2.5 goals. There is only one large favorite, with Everton favored by a goal at home over West Bromwich Albion. The other two matches are pick'ems, with home sides Hull City and Bournemouth coming in as the slightest of favorites over Swansea City and West Ham United, respectively.
On a short slate, the chalk is even narrower than it usually is. It should center around Everton, specifically Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley. Outside of the Toffees, ownership will be heavy on Gylfi Sigurdsson, as it should be every single week he plays. It's also safe to expect the one-man wall that is Harry Maguire to attract a fair amount of ownership, as well.
On a short slate, we have fewer options to select from, and pivot plays become an even better strategy. Even one goal from a lower-owned midfielder can be enough as the overall score required to take down a large field tournament tends to be lower than it is on larger slates.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some pivot plays for this weekend.
Idrissa Gueye, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
It should be noted that for short slate pivot plays we have to find players with ownership at very low levels. Gueye being owned at 25% is fine if we expect Barkley to be at more than double that. With that said, Gueye is a great pivot off of Barkley as he has shown the ability to score as well as accumulate points on a consistent basis.
Despite just scoring his first Premier League goal recently against Sunderland, he has been a consistent fantasy producer this season with 12 performances of at least 20 FanDuel points, including 5 performances of 30-plus points. While the low goal-scoring record may not seem ideal for a pivot play here, we also need to note that his role has changed since the arrival of Morgan Schneiderlin to the starting lineup. Schneiderlin has taken up the role of defensive midfielder, allowing Gueye to play a more offensive role than in the past. This increases his chances of finding that all-important short-slate goal.
As far as the match up goes, West Brom have taken only one win from their last six away matches and have allowed 10 goals over that stretch, which is tied for sixth-most in the league. Meanwhile, Everton have been an absolute offensive machine at home recently, scoring a league-leading 17 goals in their last six home fixtures, an average of almost 3 goals per match.
With a potential handful of goals to go around, Gueye is in an excellent position to bag himself one.
Alfie Mawson, Swansea City
FanDuel Salary: $6,400
Admittedly, when looking for goals, central defender isn’t the best place to look. However, most people who are willing to spend up at defender will likely take the in-form Harry Maguire and overlook Mawson.
In many ways, the two are very similar -- both are permanent fixtures at the center for their respective clubs and they are remarkably consistent fantasy producers. While Maguire has outperformed Mawson consistently throughout the season, on a week-to-week basis the two are presented with similar opportunities. In this match, both should have chances to get forward, and with Sigurdsson sending in all of the dead-ball crosses, Mawson’s quality of chances should be the better of the two.
Pairing Mawson with Sigurdsson is a good way to gain exposure to Sigurdsson while still differentiating your lineup. Outside of his offensive capabilities, Mawson should still have the opportunity to accumulate points at the back, as Hull City are at home and slightly favored in this match.
Anytime two players with a similar outlook are expected to have massively different ownership, it's wise to strongly consider the lesser-owned option -- even more so on a short slate. In this case, that player is Mawson, who has also scored three Premier League goals since the start of 2017, and he is averaging a shot per match over his last six.
As always, make sure to check lineups as they come out on Saturday morning and adjust accordingly.