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West Ham are 0.5-goal home favorites against Burnley. A year ago, Burnley had a defense we didn't want to target as they gave up just 39 goals in 38 matches. This campaign has been a different story. The Clarets have conceded 21 goals in 10 matches while allowing the most shots per game (20.9) with the fourth-lowest possession clip (43.4%).

After a putrid start to the season, West Ham have been more respectable of late, posting a +2 goal differential across their last six league matches. Arnautovic is the Hammers' focal point as he paces the side in goals (4) and shots per match (3.3) while sitting second on the team in assists (1).

West Ham's 1.5-goal implied total isn't super sexy, but on this slate, it trails only Liverpool and Everton, each of whom carry a 1.75-goal implied total. Arnautovic has been involved in five of the Hammers' nine EPL goals, and he figures to play a key role against Burnley.