Russia: Under 5.5 (4.32 projection)

Our game simulator projects Russia to finish the group stage with a total of 4.32 points, while the betting line for the over/under is significantly higher at 5.5.

Russia is likely to defeat Saudi Arabia (55.21% chance to win, per our numbers) but if they fail to win that game, it will be extremely unlikely for them to finish with at least six points. Egypt (41.77% win chance) and Uruguay (17.51% win chance) will prove to be difficult matches, and even with a full three points against Saudi Arabia, getting to six points will be difficult.

Russia may squeak their way out of this group, but it would be surprising to see them find two wins out of these three games.

Here is a complete Group A Betting Guide.