Should I accept this trade?

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Will Slade

Should I accept this trade?

Jamaal Charles for Marshawn Lynch and Travis Kelce

1 pt ppr
My team:
Stafford
Jamaal
Lamar Miller
Demaryus Thomas
Alshon Jeffery
Tyler Eiffert
Maclin
Shane Vereen
Alfred Blue
Doug Baldwin
Mohammed Sanu
John Brown
Bridgewater
Dorial Green-Beckham

3

Ajay Sutton (383 Reputation Points)
It depends on a couple of things. Most of important of which would be the two biggest questions surrounding each running back: Will Marshawn "break down" this season because of age and total work? And do we believe Reid when he says Charles will touch the ball less, and do we think that matters?

I don't think Marshawn is at a high risk to break down. Generally speaking, the most people use the age & workload arguments against RB's anecdotally...they say "hey, such and such is 30 (or has 2500 career touches), that means he's going to suck now!" But its more complex than that...most people don't like to read advanced stats and metrics...they just want a summary. So that's what most (not all, thank God...) FFL writers do...they put in the research, and then spit out a piece of advice. As far as RB's breaking down goes, most of the time there is a negative trend for several years in stats like their YPC, games played, TD's, Yards After Contact, etc. Once the trend has established itself, it then becomes safe to guess that a player's year-30 season, or whatever, will not be great. So, the thing with Marshawn is (and this is going off of an advanced metrics article I read a month or so back by I think Cockroft or Karabell on ESPN), those negative trends haven't really surfaced yet...so while he may be getting old, and may have a lot of mileage on him, he's not necessarily indicated that that matters. This may be the year he BEGINS that trend, but who knows...the man is an animal, and arguably as much of a physical freak as guys like Adrian Peterson are.

As far as Charles goes, I just don't think he needs to be a 20 touch per game guy to be elite. Whatever the Chief's plan is, its going to involve putting the ball in Charles's hands enough for him to most likely surface as the top 5 RB he's being drafted as. Does it inspire confidence that he's going to have to knock off some big yardage plays every once in a while to compensate? Not really, but he's proven that he can be counted on (relatively speaking) for those.

All in all, when it comes to the two RB's in question, I like Lynch more. Significantly more, actually (I'd be happy to draft Lynch as high as 3rd, whereas I'd be more inclined to pick Charles as the last of the elite 5 or 6 RBs out there). The fact that you're getting Kelce as a bonus seems to make this trade a lock for me.
2 Comments

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Will Slade (355 Reputation Points)
Im in a 1 ppr league, does that change things?

↳

Ajay Sutton (383 Reputation Points)
You'd think it would, but I personally don't think that it does. Since Lynch joined the Seahawks, he's averaged 29 receptions a year, never catching less than 21 balls, and actually catching MORE passes in the last two years. Charles, by comparison, has averaged 47 catches per year for the last 5 years (I excluded the injury year)...BUT, one of those years was a pretty big outlier, catching 70 balls. He's never even come close to that any other time in his career. He normalized last year, coming back to the range of his usual amount. So we can safely say that the PPR advantage for Charles exists, but that it's not massive (roughly? maybe a point per game?). Where does Lynch absolutely stomp Charles, though? Touchdowns. Lynch has not rushed for less than 11 TD's in Seattle yet. In fact, he's so consistent, it's one of the few things that you can guarantee you'll get (barring injury of course). Charles's TD numbers are respectable, but not as consistent or dominant as Lynch's...and, regardless of PPR, when you can guarantee me TD's...I want a piece of that. Its the hardest element of FFL to predict, so when there is an outlier to not being able to predict TD production, that's incredibly valuable. It's why I have AP as my #1 overall this year...consistent TD's.
0

Rick Caivano (380 Reputation Points)
Kelce is going to have a huge year, and heres why. Now that Maclin is a deep threat, which KC has not had in recent years, he will open up the underneath routes and area which Kelce will thrive in. Kelce is a tough match up in the red zone, and a great 3rd down option to move the chains! Charles and Lynch are both great backs, but Charles is obviously more injury proned! If you had Kniles Davis(who is a stud back up) on your roster I might consider standing pat, but since you do not I would make this trade! Also Jimmy Graham will require double coverage near the goal line, which opens up even more space for Lynch to score!
0

Brian Loew (445 Reputation Points)
I think you make out in the deal here. I agree with Ajay that to expect Lynch to falter too much this year because he's older is unrealistic, obviously devoid of injury risk. Though I think Charles is a greater injury risk because he's going to be *worked* the same way he was last year whereas the Seahawks have a more balanced attack. When Smith is going to someone other than Charles, he likes his boy Travis. I think you're making out better in the deal, imo, so I say go for it.
0

Adam Harnish (500 Reputation Points)
If you have confidence in Eifert as a breakout candidate, I'd stick with what you have. Charles' RB1 upside is going to be too valuable to give up, and Eifert, in my mind, could actually end up being a better tight end option than Kelce.
0

Adam Harnish (500 Reputation Points)
If you have confidence in Eifert as a breakout candidate, I'd stick with what you have. Charles' RB1 upside is going to be too valuable to give up, and Eifert, in my mind, could actually end up being a better tight end option than Kelce.

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