Questions
Bryan Pellegrino
more on player projections
I just noticed all of the player projections currently are exactly the same as their regular season averages (at least in the case of Lebron and Hibbert), so it's obviously not taking into account matchups or the fact that Hibbert is playing like 38-40 min in playoffs as opposed to like 28 during regular season.So all of that said, how confident should we be using these projections to a) play Daily Fantasy or b) bet player props? My guess is not very confident but I'd love to hear why i'm wrong and we should be or how you guys plan on improving it in the future. Thanks!
(and if this comes off as negative it's not meant to I'm genuinely curious, I think you guys are amazing and the site is great =])
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0Keith Goldner (815 Reputation Points)Thanks for the comment, Bryan. The projections are certainly adjusted for opponents/matchup but there are a few reasons for what your are seeing. First, when it comes to the NBA, since 82 games is a large sample, the projections will not deviate dramatically on a game-to-game basis, only marginally. Second, since there is only one game a day, we are not monitoring the projections as closely as we would when there are multiple games. This is because most fantasy sites do not allow you to play a daily game (which is the primary purpose of the projections) if there aren't at least 3 or more games. As a result, the oddities like Hibbert playing 38-40 minutes won't be captured from the regular season data unless we factor that in manually to the algorithm. Hope this helps.
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