What It Means:

Varlamov was tagged for three scores on 40 shots in an Avalanche loss to the Washington Capitals on Tuesday. He's conceded eight goals on 68 shots so far this season, recording a .882 save percentage. The Lightning are average 4.33 goals for per game entering Thursday's contest.

There's better options than Varlamov for the Thursday slate, as our models give him only a 32.0 percent chance of winning while projection him to give up 3.02 goals on 31.37 shot attempts.