NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Friday 4/28/23

With a chance to end the Islanders' season, the Hurricanes floundered at home in Game 5. Can they return the favor in Long Island on Friday, or will New York force a Game 7?

Unless, somehow, all four trailing teams win tonight, we won't have a four-game NHL betting slate for the reason of the season.

It's no time to sob, let's rob...a sportsbook or two! Which spots stand out tonight?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

Hurricanes ML (+100)

As these series come to a close in six or seven games, they're all close. Most of the expected goal totals are close, too. I just have to default to two teams who were way better in the regular season and are underdogs tonight.

Carolina is the first as they travel back to Long Island. They had a tremendous chance to close things out in Raleigh, but Antti Raanta let in three goals despite facing just 22 shots. That's why it appears Frederik Andersen will get a turn in goal tonight. If it goes poorly, they can always go back to Raanta in Game 7.

The Canes were always going to be at a deficit in goaltending in this series. Ilya Sorokin led the NHL in goals saved above expectation (GSAx), and he's third in the playoffs (3.37 GSAx). They weren't supposed to get outskated, though.

New York has the slight edge in expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) in this series; they're at 50.8% to Carolina's 49.2%. That's just completely opposite our larger sample from the regular season -- where Carolina (57.5 xGF%) was significantly better than the Islanders (48.5%) if not for Sorokin's heroics.

At some point, the Canes should outskate the Isles. Why not tonight as an underdog?

Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild

Stars ML (+100)

Unlike that series, in addition to being the better regular season team, Dallas has outskated Minnesota in this series. They'll look to put the final nail in the Wild's coffin tonight.

The Stars hold a 51.1 xGF% to the Wild's 48.9%. Again, in a close series in a six-game sample, these numbers are going to be close. They're far closer than these two teams were in the regular season. Over 82 games, Dallas (54.0%) smashed Minnesota (51.8%) in xGF%.

There's another element here that's predictably close. Jake Oettinger and Filip Gustavsson, both elite goaltenders, have played to a stalemate in the crease thus far. Both were top-10 netminders in GSAx this season, and Gustavsson (3.21 GSAx) and Oettinger (2.67) have been productive and evenly matched in this series.

Though Minnesota is at home, I will ride the better team to get the job done early.