NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/19/23
The fascinating part of betting on NHL games is that there's a game well behind the final score.
Let's look at what really happened during Monday's Game 1s to determine the best routes to bet tonight's slate.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins
Panthers ML (+172)
The Bruins losing the game in expected goals and covering the puckline on Monday is a perfect microcosm of their season.
Boston shattered the NHL's regular-season win record despite ranking fifth in expected-goals-for rate (54.1 xGF%). I gave Florida (53.5 xGF%) a great shot to win this series based on the way these teams ended the season, and they did their part in Game 1.
The Panthers posted 3.14 expected goals to 2.42 for Boston. Expected goals aren't everything because they don't factor in goaltending, but Florida's Alex Lyon (0.74 goals saved above expectation per game) should compete right with Vezina Trophy favorite Linus Ullmark (0.78 GSAx per game) on most nights.
It's a true longshot to most. Florida is getting just 8% of the moneyline tickets tonight, but they outplayed the Bruins on Monday. They can even this series.
Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars
Stars -1.5 (+168)
These next two bets are an aggregate. With urgency and motivation, one of these teams should blow the doors off their road foes to tie these series.
Dallas lost a heartbreaker in double overtime to Minnesota on Monday, but it plausibly shouldn't have gotten that far. The Stars won their expected goals battle, 3.01 to 2.26. That was an even wider gap than Florida presented.
It's a significant edge they're at home after upwards of 80 minutes of hockey while the Wild recovered in a hotel, but I also expected Dallas to handle this series. In terms of xGF% this year, Dallas (54.0%) was a decent it above Minnesota (51.8%) in the aggregate.
I also feel the Wild will be tempted to throw out Marc-Andre Fleury (0.86 GSAx) over Filip Gustavsson (24.54 GSAx) after Gus' long night at the office on Monday. With a poor backup, Dallas will likely turn to Jake Oettinger (21.65 GSAx) no matter what. That's a huge advantage for the Stars if the Wild trust their subpar veteran goaltender.
numberFire's model isn't one to recommend laying 1.5 goals often, but even it sees a smidge of value on this mark.
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers
Oilers -1.5 (+118)
Neither of those squads has quite the gripe with the luck gods that the Edmonton Oilers do, though.
Edmonton's expected-goal battle was won 3.85 to 2.90 over the Los Angeles Kings on Monday, but they lost in overtime. To make matters worse, the Oilers had a 3-1 lead at the halfway point of the final period. It was a choke job of epic proportions, but they're likely to come storming back tonight.
Behind the brilliant Connor McDavid, Edmonton is a Stanley Cup favorite after posting the highest xGF% (54.4%) in the Western Conference this year, and rookie Stuart Skinner shored up their goaltending spot by ranking 11th in GSAx (11.84).
Los Angeles just doesn't seem to have that same nightly firepower behind a 52.5% xGF rate, and their goaltending situation is more up in the air between Pheonix Copley (5.78 GSAx) and Joonas Korpisalo (6.54 GSAx with L.A.).
One of these West favorites should come roaring back, so a one-unit wager on both is a guaranteed profit so long as that takes place. It's more than plausible both remind their opponents what they're capable of.
