NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/18/23
We saw two wild, overtime wins by road underdogs on Monday. Minnesota even had to take care of business in double overtime.
I'd rather not have such a sweat, but road teams can definitely win again on Tuesday. Which ones, though?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils
Rangers ML (+112)
The Devils are the upstart, young contender of those in the mix to win it all, and this first-round series is a wonderful test.
New Jersey was second in expected-goals-for rate (56.3 xGF%) this season, which propelled them to the third-most points in the league (112). On paper, they hold an edge over their crosstown rival there. The Rangers sat just 12th in that department (52.2 xGF%), but a year after making the Eastern Conference Finals, it's possible the Rags weren't as urgent on a night-to-night basis.
Both of these teams added a star scorer at the deadline, too. The Devs snagged Timo Meier from the Sharks, and Patrick Kane is now in New York donning blue.
The key reason why I trust the Rangers more in a vacuum is goaltending. Reigning Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin followed up his win by sitting fifth in goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season (27.84). New Jersey's Vitek Vanecek (13.28 GSAx) was also in the top 15, but the gap there is as sizable as the skating advantage.
numberFire's model also sees a smidge of value with New York, projecting them to win 49.8% of the time as a modest underdog.
Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights
Jets ML (+128)
If I had a pen-to-paper, first-round upset to predict, it would be this one.
Of the nine teams to eclipse 105 points this year, only Vegas has tangible goaltending concerns. They've had four different goalies start at least 10 games, and with Logan Thompson (-0.40 GSAx) and Adin Hill (7.54 GSAx) still sidelined due to injury, they'll turn to Laurent Brossoit (6.52 GSAx) on Tuesday.
Brossoit, a former Winnipeg Jet, has been fine, but he spent 23 games in the AHL this season for a reason. Plus, any foe you'll face this time of the year has a top-shelf stud, and the Jets are no different.
Connor Hellebuyck started 13 straight games to clinch a playoff spot for Winnipeg in a wild Central Division race, and he's fourth overall in GSAx (33.62) as a result.
For entire the season, the Golden Knights (51.7 xGF%) and Jets (51.5 xGF%) played too similarly peripherally to ignore this chasm in goal. I wouldn't be stunned at all if the Jets steal Game 1 en route to a surprising series win.
