NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/11/23
With 10 teams on today's slate playing the second leg of a back-to-back, we've got shifting goaltending news throughout the league. The playoff races are so tight some goalies will put in overtime -- and others will sit.
When we parse through all the news, which spots are showing the most value on Tuesday?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 6.5 (-105)
The public loves to side with overs, so I can't quite figure out why this one is largely ignored.
The Penguins should be able to name their total today against the tanking Blackhawks. Since March 1st, Pittsburgh has posted the third-most expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes (3.75), and Chicago is allowing the 12th-most expected goals (xGA) per 60 in that same span (3.01).
The question does become whether or not the 'Hawks -- fourth from the bottom in offense during this stretch -- can score enough to eclipse this total, and I'd give them a modest chance at a pair of tallies. Pittsburgh is a mid-pack defense in terms of xGA per 60 (2.98) in that same period.
The goaltending here is also far from stable. In terms of goals saved above expectation (GSAx), expected starters Tristan Jarry (1.18 GSAx) and Alex Stalock (0.73 GSAx) rank outside the top-50 goaltenders this season.
That shaky aspect and the Pens' prolific offense are likely why 61% of the handle is on this over despite receiving just 42% of overall tickets.
Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild
Jets ML (+100)
The illusion of choice can be a dangerous thing.
Minnesota has been rotating Filip Gustavsson (25.34 GSAx) and Marc-Andre Fleury (1.48 GSAx) for the bulk of the regular season. Gus has 38 appearances to Flower's 45. They just can't seem to quit the veteran despite the effectiveness gap considering only Gustavsson only trails Ilya Sorokin and Linus Ullmark in GSAx per game.
They'll likely turn to Fleury tonight after Gustavsson played Monday's first leg of the back-to-back. On the other side, the Jets don't have the illusion of choice in a must-win game.
They've rode Connor Hellebuyck (30.88 GSAx) all season, so he could get the nod on consecutive days over backup David Rittich (-0.22 GSAx).
As long as Fleury gets the start, this bet is a solid one. Rittich isn't that far behind, and in terms of expected-goals-for rate (xGF%), Winnipeg (54.2%) has been the better squad than Minnesota (50.5%) since March 1st. With Hellebuyck, the value here is absurd.
Considering Fleury has otherwise been the lead dog in this rotation, I feel confident he gets the nod on short rest.
Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks
Over 6.5 (-110)
There are situations like the Jets' current one where the unrested goalie makes sense. Why it's happening here? No clue.
Thatcher Demko did perform well against the mighty Kings on Monday, ceding just two goals. However, the Canucks and Ducks are both eliminated from the playoffs, so there's really no need to start Demko other than the fact an unrested goalie might give them another loss toward the NHL Draft lottery.
Demko (-3.93 GSAx) and Anaheim's John Gibson (-2.00 GSAx) have had modest seasons considering the tire fire defensively in front of them, but it's still not been great. These two clubs are bottom-eight in goals allowed this season for a reason.
This is a meaningless game with two mediocre goaltenders -- and one lacking rest. Yet, there's no premium on this modest total for an over.
With that the case, this is a "Pros vs. Joes" betting spot tonight. 68% of bets are on this under, but 62% of the cash is on the over. We'll side with the professionals.
