NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 4/4/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Samsonov ($8,400): The Toronto Maple Leafs are massive -400 home favorites against the Columbus Blue Jackets, putting Samsonov in a spot for the win tonight. This isn't necessarily a must-win game for the Leafs, but they're coming off a loss and still need to secure home-ice advantage in the playoffs.
This matchup is mostly about how bad the Blue Jackets are on defense, putting the Leafs' offense in a spot to pile up the goals and pushing Samsonov to an easy win. Over the last month, the Blue Jackets are allowing a staggering 4.96 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the worst in the league by over a full goal.
Over his last 10 games, Samsonov has allowed three goals or fewer in eight times, bringing a solid level of consistency to your lineups.
High Salaried Skaters
Nathan MacKinnon ($10,300): MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche have a 3.88 implied goal total against the San Jose Sharks in what should be a very lopsided matchup.
To say the Sharks are struggling on defense over the last month would be putting things lightly. Only the Blue Jackets -- mentioned above -- are worse on defense over the last month. The Sharks have allowed 3.90 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
When it comes to MacKinnon, he's in the midst of a record season and on pace to break 100 NHL points for the first time in his career. He's sitting at 97 NHL points right now, and my hot take for the night is that he has a three-point game to hit 100 points on the season.
This wouldn't produce much shock; he has 16 NHL points and 45 shots on goal over his last 10 games while playing on the first forward line and the first power-play unit. The fantasy points are there for him every single night, and he has one of the softest matchups in the league to keep that trend going.
Matthew Tkachuk ($10,000): The Florida Panthers essentially need to win every single game they possibly can to close out the regular season, and tonight should be one of them. They are taking on the Buffalo Sabres, which gives the Panthers a slate-high 4.23 implied goal total and makes them an ideal target in any format.
The Panthers' offense is cookin' right now, scoring 3.65 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last month. That tops the league, and they are pouring in the goals left and right. Combined with full motivation to win games, they are an ideal target tonight.
Tkachuk is playing a big hand in this scoring with 15 NHL points and 37 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
Tyler Toffoli ($7,200): Another team that needs to be winning every game possible is the Calgary Flames. They have a solid matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks, which should enable the Flames to reach their 4.21 implied goal total tonight.
Toffoli skates on the top forward line and the top power-play unit, coming in with 15 NHL points and 34 shots on goal over his last 10 games. Given his salary and offensive role, he can go head-to-head with some of the best players on the slate when it comes to production.
With the Blackhawks allowing 2.97 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last month, the Flames should look to keep their foot on the gas tonight.
Value Skaters
Kasperi Kapanen ($3,800): Kapanen might be the most missalaried player on tonight's 11-game slate.
He is under $4K while skating on the second forward line and the first power-play unit for the St. Louis Blues. He has 9 NHL points and 22 shots on goal over his last 10 games, which is solid considering the Blues have been out of the playoff picture for a while.
Despite being out of the race, they are still piling up the scoring with 3.55 goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (second-best in the league over the last month).
Michael Bunting ($4,800): Given the Leafs' 4.19 implied goal total tonight against the lowly Blue Jackets, we should target their offense, too.
The Leafs have been resting a few players as they close out the regular season, which has allowed Bunting to skate on the first forward line and the first power-play unit. Given the matchup, Bunting makes for a clear value play tonight, and it's not without production. He has 4 NHL points and 24 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
