NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 1/17/23
"Backup goalies that aren't quite bad as you remember" is the theme of Tuesday's betting card. What could go wrong?
With that said, which second-string netminders should we back?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals
Under 6.0 (-110) - 2 Stars
At the start of the year, a matchup of Filip Gustavsson and Charlie Lindgren sounded like a surefire over. They've both outperformed expectations considerably.
Gustavsson is still filling in for Marc-Andre Fleury, who is away from the Wild due to a "deep personal matter". The problem for Fleury is that Gustavsson, who sports 7.26 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in 17 games played, might keep the job for his stellar efforts.
Lindgren is just tagging in for Darcy Kuemper on the back-to-back, and Washington's tired legs won't hurt the cause for this under. Like Filip, Lindgren (3.22 GSAx) posted a solid run in Kuemper's stead due to injury earlier this year.
These two are solid defensive clubs as is. Minnesota has allowed the 3rd-fewest expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes (2.76) in the league, and the Capitals (2.98) are also above average in 14th.
Some may see the backups and immediately turn to the over, but they're playing well for defensively sound teams. Our model expects six goals or fewer 64.7% of the time in this game, which even factoring a push is a value wager against these 52.5% implied odds.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Nashville Predators
Blue Jackets +1.5 (-142) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (-114) - 2 Stars
In Columbus, the backup hasn't just been serviceable. He's been the upgrade.
At -23.15 GSAx, Elvis Merzlikins has an argument as the worst netminder of 2022-23. Merzlikins posted a decent effort in yesterday's 3-1 loss to New York, but the back-to-back will have Daniil Tarasov in goal tonight. Tarasov (0.04 GSAx) has been far better in just 12 games of action.
The Predators will also have to turn to a backup after using Juuse Saros yesterday. It'll be Kevin Lankinen, and Lankinen (2.52 GSAx) has been more than serviceable in spot duty.
These two clubs are both bottom-six ones in goals scored per 60 minutes this year. Just like the game in Washington, this total is elevated because of the name value in goal, but Tarasov's upgrade in the crease should actually have the opposite effect.
We expect the under to hit 58.1% of the time against these 52.9% implied odds, which is a two-star wager. Another is backing the Blue Jackets' puckline with the relative upgrade in their net and the downgrade in Nashville's. We expect the Jackets to cover 62.9% of the time.
